Philadelphia Phillies (45-20) vs. Boston Red Sox (33-33)
June 11, 2024 7:10 pm EDT
The Line: Boston Red Sox +140 / Philadelphia Phillies -165; Over/Under: +8.5
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In this article we will formulate a Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, June 11th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.
Red Sox Disappointed with Series Split
The Boston Red Sox are 33-33 this year and they have won three of their last five games. Boston is coming off of a series split with the White Sox, where they won two games and lost two games. The Red Sox lost games two and three by scores of 7-2 and 6-1. Prior to that series, the Red Sox split two games with the Braves, split four games with the Tigers, and lost two out of three against the Orioles. Boston is 5-6 in their last 11 games and they are third in the AL East behind New York and Baltimore.
The Boston pitching staff has a 3.40 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a .230 opponent batting average. The Red Sox offense has scored 296 runs with a .247 batting average and a .316 on base percentage. Jarren Duran is batting .263 with five home runs and 27 RBI’s for the Red Sox this season. Boston is fifth in the MLB in team ERA this year, but they have allowed at least five runs in six of their last 11 games.
Phillies Look to Stay Hot
The Philadelphia Phillies are 45-20 this season and they have won four of their last five games. Philadelphia is coming off of a series split with the Mets, where they won one game and lost one game in the London Series. Prior to that series, the Phillies swept the Brewers in three games, won two out of three against the Cardinals, and lost two out of three against the Giants. Philadelphia is 7-2 in their last nine games and they are leading the NL East by nine games over the Braves.
The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 2.93 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a .219 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 332 runs with a .255 batting average and a .331 on base percentage. Nick Castellanos is batting .215 with nine home runs and 29 RBI’s for the Phillies this season. Philadelphia is second in the MLB in runs scored and they have allowed two runs or fewer in eight of their last ten games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Zack Wheeler, who is 7-3 with a 2.23 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP over 80.2 innings pitched this season. Wheeler has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts and has only allowed a total of one earned run in his last two outings. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Kutter Crawford, who is 2-5 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 74.1 innings pitched this year. Crawford has allowed four earned runs or more in four of his last five starts and he has allowed 15 earned runs in his last three outings.
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
The Red Sox have lost each of their last seven night games against National League opponents.
The Phillies have won nine of their last 10 night games against American League opponents.
The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven night games against National League opponents.
The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last six road games against the Red Sox following a loss.
The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six night games against NL East opponents.
The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven night games against American League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Phillies’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Seven of the Red Sox’s last eight home games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 10 home games against National League opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last four night games at Fenway Park.
Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
Boston continues to hover right around the .500 mark this season, but they are just 14-18 at home. The Red Sox are coming off of a disappointing series with the White Sox and now they have to face the best team in baseball. Philadelphia is 18-10 on the road and they are starting Zack Wheeler, who has been great in his last four starts. I think Philadelphia is going to stay hot and put up a good amount of runs against Crawford. My Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction is for the Phillies to win by at least two runs.
