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Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres Prediction 6-28-24 Picks

San Diego Padres (44-41) vs. Boston Red Sox (43-37)
June 28, 2024 7:10 pm EDT
The Line: Boston Red Sox -154 / San Diego Padres +129; Over/Under: +9.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The San Diego Padres and the Boston Red Sox meet Friday in MLB action from Fenway Park. Here’s a Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres prediction. This will be the first installment in a three-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game.

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

San Diego played the Washington Nationals in their last series. The Padres did very well in that set, taking all three games in a sweep 7-6, 9-7 and 8-5. In the Wednesday finale, San Diego’s Kyle Higashioka posted two homers and a whopping six RBI during the victory.

For the starter gig in the Friday matchup the Padres will send out Randy Vasquez. This year Vasquez is 2-4 with a 5.10 ERA in 10 starts. He has a 4-6 career record with a 4.11 ERA in 21 games (15 starts).

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

Over on the Red Sox’ side, they played the rival Toronto Blue Jays in their last series. Boston won 7-6 in the opener then took a 9-4 loss on Tuesday. The Wednesday rubber match was suspended after a couple of innings and will be made up in August as part of a doubleheader.

Nick Pivetta will take the mound for the Friday start. Over his 11 starts this year Pivetta is 4-4 with a 4.06 ERA. He has 64 Ks in 57.2 innings. In 207 career games (163 starts), Pivetta is 54-63 with a 4.81 ERA.

Red Sox vs Padres Pick Injury Notes

Padres 2B Xander Bogaerts (shoulder) took batting practice Wednesday.

Red Sox RP Liam Hendriks (elbow) threw a bullpen session Wednesday.

Total Runs Facts

  • Each of the Padres’ last seven games have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • Each of the Red Sox’s last four home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last six night games against AL East opponents.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last three games.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

  • Triston Casas has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
  • Rafael Devers has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Red Sox’s last four home games.
  • Rafael Devers has scored at least one run in each of the Red Sox’s last seven home games.
  • Connor Wong has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances.
  • Connor Wong has recorded at least one Single in each of his last nine appearances in night games.
  • Connor Wong has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 13 appearances.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

  • Jurickson Profar has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jake Cronenworth has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 11 appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit a home run in each of the Padres’ last two night games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded an RBI in each of the Padres’ last five games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jake Cronenworth has scored at least one run in each of the Padres’ last four night games.
  • Jake Cronenworth has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jurickson Profar has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 10 appearances at Fenway Park.

Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres Prediction

I’ll stay with the Padres. Vasquez had a rough start on June 17 versus Philadelphia, taking the loss with 4.1 innings, six earned, 12 hits and two walks. Vasquez was able to bounce back in his last start, though. He won that matchup versus the Braves on 5.0 clean frames, five hits and three walks. As for Pivetta, he’s got 10 earned runs in his last 15.1 total innings across three starts.

San Diego had a nice series against a middling Nationals team this week, scoring a combined 24 runs across three games. The Padres offense is red hot right now with five or more runs in seven of the last eight. I like them to keep it going Friday.

Andrew's Free Pick: San Diego Padres +129

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Andrew

Andrew has been writing about college, professional and fantasy sports betting since 2013. Andrew's goal is to break down the complicated numbers and trends into a language that's easily accessible to novice sports bettors and seasoned professionals alike.

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