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Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres Prediction 6-30-24 Picks

San Diego Padres (46-41) vs. Boston Red Sox (43-39)
June 30, 2024 1:35 pm EDT
The Line: Boston Red Sox -125 / San Diego Padres +105; Over/Under: +9.5
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In this article we will formulate a Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, June 30th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game three in the series. 

Red Sox Searching for Pitching Answers

The Boston Red Sox are 43-39 this year and they have lost three games in a row. Boston has lost the first two games in this series and they have allowed 20 runs in the two games. Prior to this series, the Red Sox split two games with the Blue Jays, won two out of three against the Reds, and swept the Blue Jays. Boston is 8-4 in their last 12 games and they are third in the AL East. 

The Boston pitching staff has a 3.67 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .237 opponent batting average. The Red Sox offense has scored 377 runs with a .252 batting average and a .321 on base percentage. Rafael Devers is batting .282 with 17 home runs and 43 RBI’s for the Red Sox this season. Boston has allowed at least six runs in four straight games. 

Padres Offense Remains Hot 

The San Diego Padres are 46-41 this season and they have won five games in a row. San Diego has won the first two games in this series by scores of 9-2 and 11-1. Prior to this series, the Padres swept the Nationals, won three out of four against the Brewers, and lost two out of three against the Phillies. San Diego is 9-1 in their last 10 games and they are second in the NL West standings. 

The San Diego pitching staff has a 4.05 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .246 opponent batting average. The Padres offense has scored 411 runs with a .263 batting average and a .327 on base percentage. Manny Machado is batting .268 with 10 home runs and 45 RBI’s for the Padres this season. San Diego has scored at least seven runs in five straight games.

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Josh Winckowski, who is 1-1 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over 30.1 innings pitched this year. Winckowski has allowed four earned runs in his last 15.1 innings of work. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Matt Waldron, who is 5-6 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 89.1 innings pitched this season. Waldron has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. 

Why the Padres will beat the Red Sox

  • The Padres have won each of their last five games as underdogs.
  • The Red Sox have lost four of their last five games as favorites against NL West opponents.
  • The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Red Sox’s last 12 games.
  • The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites.
  • The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six day games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

  • Each of the Padres’ last nine games have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • Each of the Red Sox’s last six home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 12 games as home favorites against National League opponents.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last eight games as road underdogs.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

  • Rafael Devers has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last four games as favorites.
  • Rafael Devers has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Red Sox’s last six home games.
  • Connor Wong has recorded a Single in each of his last seven appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Connor Wong has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances.
  • Trevor Story has recorded at least one total base in 13 of his last 14 appearances with his team as a favorite against the Padres.
  • Triston Casas has scored a run in each of his last eight Sunday appearances.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

  • Manny Machado has hit at least one home run in each of his last two appearances against the Red Sox after playing the previous day.
  • Jake Cronenworth has scored at least one run in eight of the Padres’ last nine games.
  • Jurickson Profar has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 12 appearances at Fenway Park.
  • Jurickson Profar has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances.
  • Xander Bogaerts has recorded at least one total base in 15 of his last 16 road appearances against AL opponents.
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded an RBI in each of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.

Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres Prediction 

San Diego comes into this game looking for the series sweep and they are one of the hottest teams in the MLB right now. The Padres are 9-1 in their last 10 games and they are 22-19 on the road, while Boston is 19-23 at home. The Red Sox have had some major pitching issues, but they will turn to Winckowski, who has been pretty solid recently, but has not had a ton of starts. San Diego is starting Waldron, who has been very dominant in his last five outings. My Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres prediction is for San Diego to get the win. 

David Racey's Free Pick: Padres ML

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David Racey

David started writing about sports in 2015, but sports has been his passion for as long as he can remember. David spends most of his free time watching pretty much anything sports related from Baseball to Tennis and everything in between. David likes to analyze statistics and recent results to form an unbiased opinion on whatever game he is breaking down. Follow David on Twitter at @itsyerboi41

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