Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 5/7/26 MLB Picks Today

The Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox meet Thursday in MLB action from Fenway Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Tampa Bay Rays will send out Griffin Jax for the start here and Jax is 1-2 with a 5.14 ERA and 14 strikeouts this season. This will be Jax’s second career start against the Red Sox. Boston will send out Jake Bennett for the start here and Bennett is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 3 strikeouts this season. This will be Bennett’s first career start against the Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays come into this game looking to add on to their 3-0 win over Toronto last time out to sit at 24-12 this season. After this series, the Rays will head on the road for a series against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Rays Win 6 In A Row

Yandy Diaz has 41 hits with 3 doubles, a triple, 5 home runs and 22 RBIs while Chandler Simpson has 43 hits with 2 triples and 8 RBIs. Nick Fortes has 24 hits with 5 doubles, a home run and 8 RBIs and Jonathan Aranda has 35 hits with 5 doubles, 7 homers and 29 RBIs. Junior Caminero’s also added 34 hits with 3 doubles, 9 home runs and 16 RBIs and Ben WIlliamson has 25 hits with 5 doubles and 11 RBIs.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to add on to their 4-0 win over Detroit in their last game to improve to 16-21 this season. After this series, Boston will take on the Philadelphia Phillies in a series at home.

Red Sox Win 3 In A Row

Wilyer Abreu leads the Red Sox with 41 hits including 6 doubles, a triple, 5 home runs and 16 RBIs while Trevor Story has 29 hits with 6 doubles, 2 homers and 18 RBIs and Marcelo Mayer’s added 24 hits with 6 doubles, a home run and 8 RBIs as well. Roman Anthony has 25 hits with 5 doubles, a triple, a home run and 5 RBIs so far this season while Jarren Duran has 24 hits with 5 doubles, 4 home runs and 18 RBIs as well this season. Willson Contreras has added 34 hits with 4 doubles, 8 homers and 23 RBIs of his own on the year.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox Betting Trends: May 7, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jake Bennett      Record this season: 1-0      ERA: 1.80
• Home Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Rays: –

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The home team has won each of the Rays’ last seven games.
• The Rays have lost each of their last seven road games against AL East opponents following a win.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four road games against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in four of their last five games following a road win.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games at Fenway Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games as road underdogs against American League opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Griffin Jax      Record this season: 1-2      ERA: 5.14
• Road Record: 1-2
• Last 5 against Red Sox: 0-0

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last 10 night games against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have lost six of their last seven games as home favorites against American League opponents following a win.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line each of their last nine night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last 16 Thursday games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven night games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Rays have won the first inning in three of their last four night games against the Red Sox.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven night games against opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Ten of the Rays’ last 11 games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Nine of the Red Sox’s last 10 night games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Rays’ last eight road games against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last seven Thursday night games.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Jarren Duran has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last four games as favorites.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 10 games against the Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in four of his last 14 appearances with the Rays as road underdogs.
• Taylor Walls has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Rays as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Chandler Simpson ranks T4th in the league in Steals (12) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Red Sox rank 28th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.356).
• The Red Sox rank T27th in the league for home runs this season (27).
• The Rays rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (45).
• The Rays rank T2nd in the league for steals this season (38).

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction

I’m on the under in this game. This one just feels like it’s going to be a low-scoring battle with the assumption this will be a heavy use of Tampa’s bullpen in this game and their bullpen ERA being the best in baseball in the last two weeks. On the flipside, Bennett is a lefty and the Rays have struggled at the plate against lefties as of late and I think runs in this game could be scarce. Give me the under.