Braves vs Mets Game 1 Prediction 7/29/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Braves vs Mets Game 1Prediction for this MLB matchup on Wednesday, July 29^th in the third game of this series and second of today’s double header. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have a 45-62 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL East. They have a 23-30 home record and are coming off a 14-3 home win against the Braves. They will face the Marlins and the Guardians next.

The New York Mets have a .235 batting average this season, .307 OBP and .387 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.18 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Juan Soto is the team’s best hitter with a .283 batting average, leads the team in RBI with 52, and adds a team-high 21 home runs.

Sean Manaea (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the New York Mets, and he has a 2-5 record, 4.52 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.

Atlanta Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves have a 62-44 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the NL East. They have a 30-24 away record and are coming off a 3-14 road loss against the Mets. They will face the Nationals and the Marlins next.

The Atlanta Braves have a .249 batting average this season, .315 OBP and .416 Slugging percentage. Atlanta’s pitching staff has a 3.74 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Michael Harris II is the team’s best hitter with a .298 batting average. Matt Olson leads the team in RBI with 63, adding a team-high 27 home runs.

AJ Smith-Shawver (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Atlanta Braves and he will make his season debut. Last season he had a 3-2 record, 3.86 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets Betting Trends: July 29, 2026: Game 1

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Sean Manaea      Record this season: 2-5      ERA: 4.52
• Home Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Braves: 0-3

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Braves have lost four of their last five games as favorites against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Mets have won each of their last five Wednesday games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in nine of the Braves’ last 10 games.
• The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven games at Citi Field.
• The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six day games against NL East opponents.
• The Braves have lost the first inning in seven of their last eight games as road favorites against NL East opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: AJ Smith-Shawver      Record this season: –      ERA: –
• Road Record: –
• Last 5 against Mets: –

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The Mets have lost seven of their last eight games on the first leg of a doubleheader.
• The Braves have won 14 of their last 15 games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Braves have covered the run line in 14 of their last 15 games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six home games on the first leg of a doubleheader.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Braves have led after 5 innings in 12 of their last 13 games as favorites.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Braves’ last eight road games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the last four games between the Braves and Mets have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Braves’ last nine games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in five of Sean Manaea’s last six home appearances as a starter.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Sean Manaea has recorded five or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances in day games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 home appearances against NL East opponents.
• Tyrone Taylor has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four games against the Braves.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit at least one home run in four of his last five appearances with the Braves as road favorites.
• AJ Smith-Shawver has recorded five or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances with the Braves as favorites.
• Michael Harris has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves’ last 14 games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• Matt Olson ranks T7th in the league in Home Runs (27) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (132).
• The Mets rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (132).
• The Braves rank 4th in the league for home runs this season (140).
• The Braves rank 4th in the league for home runs this season (140).

Braves vs Mets Game 1 Prediction

The Mets have won their last three meetings against the Braves and their last two visits in Atlanta. Their last four meetings have all gone over the total.

In this Braves vs Mets Game 1 Prediction, the Braves are coming as -115 road favorites. I expect the Braves to win the second game of this double header with Chris Sale on the mound, so I will go with the Mets in this one. I don’t expect the Braves to win both games on the road and AJ Smith-Shawver has not played since the May of 2025 and was terrible on the road last season with a 5.61 road ERA. On top of that, the Braves cannot hit lefties in their last 5 games, so take the Mets in this one at home.