Phillies vs Marlins Prediction 7/29/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for this MLB matchup on Wednesday, July 29^th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Miami Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins have a 54-54 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the NL East. They have a 33-23 home record and are coming off a 1-0 home win against the Phillies. They will face the Mets and the Braves next.

The Miami Marlins have a .251 batting average this season, .326 OBP and .406 Slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.07 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Otto Lopez is the team’s best hitter with a .328 batting average. Liam Hicks leads the team in RBI with 60, while Heriberto Hernandez adds a team-high 15 home runs.

Ryan Gusto (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Miami Marlins, and he has a 0-2 record, 4.50 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 57-51 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL East. They have a 29-24 away record and are coming off a 0-1 road loss against the Marlins. They will face the Orioles and the Nationals next.

The Philadelphia Phillies have a .236 batting average this season, .303 OBP and .399 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.22 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .280 batting average. Bryce Harper leads the team in RBI with 63, while Kyle Schwarber adds a team-high 33 home runs.

Jesus Luzardo (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he has a 9-5 record, 3.31 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: July 29, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Ryan Gusto      Record this season: 0-2      ERA: 4.50
• Home Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Phillies: 0-1

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won each of their last 10 games against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Phillies have lost three of their last four games as favorites.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last 11 day games following a win.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven day games against National League opponents.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in each of their last five home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jesus Luzardo      Record this season: 9-5      ERA: 3.31
• Road Record: 6-0
• Last 5 against Marlins: 4-1

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Marlins have lost each of their last six day games against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have won each of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 games after playing the previous day.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last four games against the Marlins following a loss.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four home day games.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in four of their last five day games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Twelve of the Marlins’ last 14 games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Phillies’ last six games as favorites against the Marlins have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in 13 of the Marlins’ last 14 games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Phillies’ last four games.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Xavier Edwards has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last nine games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Griffin Conine has hit a home run in each of the Marlins’ last three games as home underdogs.
• Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (136) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Jesus Luzardo has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances against the Marlins.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded nine or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances against the Marlins.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances with the Phillies as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• Derek Hill has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances against former teams.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 2nd in the league in Home Runs (33) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins rank T1st in the league for triples this season (25).
• The Marlins rank T1st in the league for triples this season (25).
• The Phillies rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.303).
• The Phillies rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.303).

Phillies vs Marlins Prediction

The Marlins have won their last three meetings against the Phillies, including their last two meetings in Miami.

In this Phillies vs Marlins Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -175 road favorites. I like the Phillies in a bounce-back spot with Jesus Luzardo, who has been untouchable lately, having one earned run or less in each of his last six starts. He has been even better on the road with a perfect 6-0 record and 1.38 ERA and the Marlins have been terrible against left-handed pitching lately, averaging 1.6 runs per game in their last 10 and just 0.6 in their last five. On top of that, their bullpen has been in very bad shape, so I like the Phillies to win this one on the road.