Brewers vs Diamondbacks Prediction 7/4/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Brewers vs Diamondbacks Prediction for this MLB matchup on Saturday, July 4^th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 43‑44 record this season and are tied for the 2nd place of the NL West. They have a 26‑19 home record and are coming off a 4‑7 home defeat against the Brewers. They will face the Padres and the Dodgers next.

The Diamondbacks have a .238 batting average this season, .308 OBP and .384 Slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.31 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Ketel Marte is the team’s best hitter with a .269 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 54 and adding a team‑high 17 home runs.

Merrill Kelly (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks, and he has a 5‑8 record, 5.84 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.

Milwaukee Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers have a 54‑32 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the NL Central. They have a 25‑14 road record and are coming off a 7‑4 road win against the Diamondbacks. They will face the Cardinals and the Pirates next.

The Brewers have a .254 batting average this season, .338 OBP and .396 Slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.35 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. William Contreras is the team’s best hitter with a .293 batting average. Jake Bauers leads the team in RBI with 52, adding a team‑high 15 home runs.

Brandon Woodruff (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers, and he has a 2‑1 record, 2.59 ERA and 0.84 WHIP.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Trends: July 4, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Merrill Kelly      Record this season: 5-8      ERA: 5.84
• Home Record: 2-3
• Last 5 against Brewers: 3-2

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Brewers have lost five of their last six games as road favorites after going to extra innings.
• The Diamondbacks have won four of their last five games as home underdogs against NL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games as favorites against the Diamondbacks following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Brewers have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
• The Brewers have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in eight of their last 10 home games against NL Central opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Brandon Woodruff      Record this season: 2-1      ERA: 2.59
• Road Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 2-1

Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win

• The Brewers have won each of their last 10 games against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last five games against National League opponents after going to extra innings.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven Saturday games.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in 15 of their last 18 games as underdogs.
• The Brewers have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven night games against the Diamondbacks.

Total Runs Facts

• Thirteen of the Brewers’ last 14 games after going to extra innings have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Diamondbacks’ last six home games following an extra innings loss have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in eight of the Diamondbacks’ last nine home games against NL Central opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Brewers’ last four road games.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Ketel Marte has hit a home run in four of the Diamondbacks’ last six games.
• Merrill Kelly has recorded a win in each of his last three home appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Merrill Kelly has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last 12 home appearances.
• Ketel Marte has recorded at least one hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last 11 games against NL opponents.
• Corbin Carroll is one of only two players to record 10+ Home Runs and 4+ Triples this season.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Garrett Mitchell has hit a home run in each of the Brewers’ last two games.
• Brandon Woodruff has recorded a win in six of his last seven road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Brandon Woodruff has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last 10 appearances with the Brewers as road favorites against NL opponents.
• Andrew Vaughn has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Saturday night appearances against teams that held a losing record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Diamondbacks rank 30th in the league for strikeouts this season (590).
• The Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (78).
• The Brewers rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (850).
• The Brewers rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (626).

Brewers vs Diamondbacks Prediction

The Brewers are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Diamondbacks but have lost two of their last three visits in Arizona.

In this Brewers vs Diamondbacks Prediction, the Brewers are coming as -150 road favorites. This is one is straightforward, as the Brewers have a big pitching edge with Brandon Woodruff going up against Merrill Kelly. Woodruff has been unhittable lately with three straight shutouts, while Kelly has been atrocious this season and has a 0-3 record and 7.27 ERA in his last three starts and an 8.13 home ERA. The Brewers have the third-best offense and a better bullpen, so take them on the moneyline in this one.