Brewers vs Mets Prediction 7/21/26 MLB Picks Today

The New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers meet Tuesday in MLB action at American Family Field. Here’s a Brewers vs Mets Prediction. This article will include a Brewers vs Mets Pick.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 42-59 on the year and play the Dodgers and Braves next. The New York Mets are batting .233 on the season, have a .303 OBP, and have a .380 slugging percentage. The New York Mets’ pitching staff has a 4.27 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Bo Bichette leads the New York Mets with 101 hits and 51 RBI, while Carson Benge and Juan Soto have combined for 178 hits and 90 RBI.

Zac Thornton gets the ball for the New York Mets, and he is 0-1 with a 2.60 ERA and 15 strikeouts this season. This will be Thornton’s first career game against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are 63-37 on the year and play the Giants and Rockies next. The Milwaukee Brewers are batting .253 on the season, have a .337 OBP, and have a .399 slugging percentage. The Milwaukee Brewers’ pitching staff has a 3.44 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. William Contreras leads the Milwaukee Brewers with 99 hits and 57 RBI, while Brice Turang and Garrett Mitchell have combined for 177 hits and 109 RBI.

Brandon Sproat gets the ball for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he is 3-5 with a 5.16 ERA and 87 strikeouts this season. This will be Sproat’s first career game against the New York Mets.

Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last eight night games against NL Central opponents.
• The home team has won each of the Brewers’ last seven games.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last eight Tuesday night games against National League opponents.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have lost the first inning in three of their last four road games against NL Central opponents.
• The Brewers have led after 5 innings in each of their last 13 Tuesday games as home favorites.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in eight of their last nine games as road underdogs.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Brewers have lost four of their last five Tuesday games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have won each of their last three road games following a loss.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven home games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have covered the run line in five of their last six road games against the Brewers following a loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Mets’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Brewers’ last five games as favorites against the Mets have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of Brandon Sproat’s last eight appearances as a starter.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in five of the Mets’ last six games against NL Central opponents.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Sproat has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four home appearances.
• Andrew Vaughn has hit a home run in seven of his last nine appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a losing record.
• Brice Turang has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 20 appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Juan Soto has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances with his team as a road underdog against the Brewers.
• Carson Benge has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances in night games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Brewers rank T29th in the league for home runs this season (94).
• The Brewers rank T29th in the league for home runs this season (94).
• The Mets rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.303).
• The Mets rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.303).

Brewers vs Mets Prediction

I’m not excited to get behind Sproat and his 5.16 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, but the Brewers are head and shoulders the better team in this spot. Also, I’m not in the business of backing the Mets, the most underachieving team in baseball. I need to see a larger sample size of Thornton, who has just 17.1 innings under his belt. Also, Sproat should have some extra motivation in this spot as the Mets traded him in January for Tobias Myers and Freddy Peralta. He has a chance for a bit of a revenge spot. I’ll take the Brewers and the reasonable price.