Brewers vs Padres Prediction 9/23/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Brewers vs Padres Prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, September 23^rd at the Petco Park in the second game of this series, with the Padres having the 1-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have an 86-71 record this season and are sitting on the 2nd place of the NL West. The Padres have a 48-28 home record and are 67-84 in over/under. They are coming off a 5-4 home victory over the Brewers, and have three consecutive wins. They are playing the Diamondbacks next.

The Padres have a .252 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .388 slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.67 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Luis Arraez leads the Padres with 173 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with .286 batting average. Manny Machado leads the team in RBI, with 93 and in home runs, with 26.

Randy Vasquez (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has a 5-7 record, 3.94 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.

Milwaukee Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers have a 95-62 record this season and are sitting on the 1st place of the NL Central. The Brewers have a 44-35 road record and are 76-76 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-5 road defeat by the Padres, and are 1-3 in their last 4 games. They are playing the Reds next.

The Brewers have a .260 batting average this season, .334 OBP and .406 slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.61 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Brice Turang leads the Brewers with 162 hits, while is the team’s best hitter, with a .292 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI, with 102, adding a team-high 29 home runs.

Bruce Zimmermann (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers, and this will be his first start of the season.

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: September 23, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Randy Vasquez      Record this season: 5-7      ERA: 3.94
• Home Record: 2-2
• Last 5 against Brewers: 1-0

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Brewers have lost seven of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.
• The home team has won six of the Brewers’ last seven games.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven road games.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the Brewers’ last seven games.
• The Padres have won the first inning in three of their last four home games.
• The Brewers have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven road games.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games as home favorites.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: TBD

Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win

• The Brewers have won each of their last six games as underdogs against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have lost four of their last five games as favorites against the Brewers following a home win.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last 11 games as underdogs following a loss.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four night games following an extra innings win.
• The Brewers have led after 3 innings in each of their last five night games against NL West opponents.
• The Brewers have led after 5 innings in 10 of their last 11 night games against NL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the last eight games between the Brewers and Padres at Petco Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Brewers’ last eight games as underdogs against the Padres have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last seven games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 13 of the Brewers’ last 15 games as road underdogs.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Jackson Merrill has hit a home run in three of the Padres’ last four games as home favorites.
• Gavin Sheets has recorded at least one Double in three of the Padres’ last four home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Brice Turang has hit a home run in two of the Brewers’ last three games as road underdogs against NL opponents.
• Andrew Vaughn has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in night games.
• Brice Turang has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances against NL West opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.225).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (1159).
• The Brewers rank T2nd in the league for runs scored this season (794).
• The Brewers rank 2nd in the league for hits this season (1392).

Brewers vs Padres Prediction

The Padres are 8-3 in their last 11 head-to-head meetings against the Brewers, and are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in San Diego. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings.

In this Brewers vs Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -115 home favorites. I don’t trust either pitcher in this matchup, but at least we have seen Vasquez this season, and he has been better at home, with a 3.41 ERA. The Padres are also locked in a Wild Card spot, and need the win more than the Brewers. They also have the league’s best bullpen, so I expect them to get the job done at home in this one.