Cardinals vs Rays Prediction 3/26/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Cardinals vs Rays prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, March 26th at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals went 78-84 last year and they finished fourth in the NL Central standings, which was 14 games behind the Brewers for first. St. Louis started the 2025 season with a 5-3 win over the Twins at home and they won all three games in that series. The Cardinals had a huge June to get back in the playoff race, but they struggled in the last three months and ended up below .500 for the season. St. Louis went 44-37 at home and 34-47 on the road, while they scored 689 runs and allowed 754 runs last year. 

Last season, St. Louis had a 4.29 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .259 opponent batting average, while they scored 689 runs with a .245 batting average and a .314 on base percentage. Wilson Contreras (now with Boston) led the team with 20 home runs and 80 RBIs, while Alec Burleson added 18 home runs and 69 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for St. Louis is Matthew Liberatore, who went 8-12 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 151.2 innings pitched last year. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays were 77-85 last season and they finished fourth in the AL East standings, which was 17 games behind the Blue Jays and Yankees for first. Tampa Bay started the year with a 3-2 walk-off win over Colorado at home and they won two of the three games in that series. The Rays were 47-38 after June, but they also struggled over the last three months and missed the postseason. Tampa Bay was 41-40 at home and 36-45 on the road, while they scored 714 runs and allowed 683 runs last year. 

Last season, Tampa Bay had a 3.94 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and a .237 opponent batting average, while they scored 714 runs with a .251 batting average and a .313 on base percentage. Junior Caminero led TB with 45 home runs and 110 RBIs, while Yandy Diaz added 25 home runs and 83 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Drew Rasmussen, who went 10-5 with a 2.76 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over 150.0 innings pitched last season. 

Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win

• The Rays have lost each of their last four games as favorites.
• The underdogs have won nine of the Cardinals’ last 12 games at Busch Stadium.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 games as favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in 11 of the Cardinals’ last 12 games at Busch Stadium.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven games as favorites.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven games as favorites.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Cardinals have lost each of their last eight day games against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have won each of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games.
• The Rays have covered the run line in five of their last six games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Cardinals’ last eight games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Rays’ last five games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Cardinals’ last nine home games against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Rays’ last six games at Busch Stadium.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Masyn Winn has recorded a Double in each of the Cardinals’ last three home games against the Rays.
• Alec Burleson has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances with the Cardinals as home underdogs.
• Ramon Urias has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances in day games.
• Victor Scott II ranked 10th in the league in Steals (34) last season.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in three of his last seven appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Drew Rasmussen has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances with the Rays as road favorites against NL opponents.
• Drew Rasmussen has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Rays as road favorites against NL opponents.
• Taylor Walls has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Rays as favorites.
• Gavin Lux has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven road appearances.
• Chandler Simpson ranked T2nd in the league in Steals (44) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cardinals ranked 29th in the league for home runs last season (148).
• The Cardinals ranked T29th in the league for triples last season (9).
• The Rays ranked 1st in the league for steals last season (194).
• The Rays were one of only three teams in the league to have ranked top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed last season.

Cardinals vs Rays Prediction 

St. Louis comes into this season with plenty of new faces and they will look to make quick work of this rebuild. The Cardinals are starting Liberatore, who is a decent pitcher, but he is not even close to an ace in my opinion. Tampa Bay is going with Rasmussen, who was on an innings limit last year, but he was very good in 150 innings. I think TB has the better offense and the better starter, so I will back the Rays to win here.