San Diego Padres (26-26) vs. Cincinnati Reds (20-29)
May 23, 2024 1:10 pm EDT
The Line: Cincinnati Reds -101 / San Diego Padres -118; Over/Under: +9.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds meet Thursday in MLB game 3 action at Great American Ball Park. Here’s a Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Prediction.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
The San Diego Padres look to get above a .500 record before playing the New York Yankees and Miami Marlins. The San Diego Padres have scored 7 runs in their last 3 games and 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 7 games. The San Diego Padres have lost 5 of their last 6 games when scoring 3 or fewer runs. Jurickson Profar leads the San Diego Padres with 59 hits and 32 RBI, while Jake Cronenworth and Fernando Tatis Jr. have combined for 100 hits and 58 RBI.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
The Cincinnati Reds are 20-29 on the year and will face the LA Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals after this game. The Cincinnati Reds have scored 7 runs in their last 3 games and 3 or fewer runs in 5 straight games. The Cincinnati Reds have lost 10 of their last 11 games when scoring 3 or fewer runs. Elly De La Cruz leads the Cincinnati Reds with 45 hits and 23 RBI, while Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario have combined for 72 hits and 49 RBI. The Reds will face the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs following this series.
San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Pitching Matchup
Matt Waldron gets the ball for the San Diego Padres, and he is 2-5 with a 5.00 ERA and 45 strikeouts this season. Waldron has allowed 15 hits and 10 earned runs in his last 14 innings. Waldron has a 3.60 ERA and .235 allowed batting average in 25 road innings. This will be Waldron’s second career game against the Cincinnati Reds.
Frankie Montas gets the ball for the Cincinnati Reds, and he is 2-3 with a 4.37 ERA and 25 strikeouts this season. Montas has allowed 15 hits and 8 earned runs in his last 15.2 innings. Montas has a 2.04 ERA and .206 allowed batting average in 17.2 home innings. Montas is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 14 strikeouts in his career against the San Diego Padres.
Why the San Diego Padres will win
- The Reds have lost each of their last eight day games against National League opponents.
- The Padres have won seven of their last eight day games against the Reds following a win.
- The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last seven games at Great American Ball Park following a road win.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games against the Padres following a home loss.
- The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three home day games.
Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
- Jeimer Candelario has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six appearances against the Padres after playing the previous day.
- Spencer Steer has recorded two or more total bases in seven of his last eight appearances against the Padres.
- Jeimer Candelario has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight appearances against the Padres after playing the previous day.
- Frankie Montas has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last seven home appearances against NL opponents.
- Jeimer Candelario has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances against the Padres after playing the previous day.
- Jeimer Candelario has hit a home run in four of his last six appearances against the Padres after playing the previous day.
- Spencer Steer has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against the Padres.
- Jeimer Candelario has recorded a Single in each of his last five appearances against the Padres after playing the previous day.
- Elly De La Cruz ranks 1st in the league in Steals (30) this season.
San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Padres’ last five road games against the Reds.
- Luis Arraez has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Padres’ last seven road games against NL opponents.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has scored at least one run in seven of the Padres’ last eight road games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Jurickson Profar has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres’ last 11 games against NL opponents.
- Luis Arraez has recorded at least one Single in each of the Padres’ last eight road games.
- Jurickson Profar has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances in day games against NL Central teams that held a losing record.
- Manny Machado has recorded at least one Double in three of the Padres’ last four games at Great American Ball Park against opponents that held a losing record.
- Jurickson Profar ranks 1st amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.431) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Cincinnati Reds rank 30th in the league for hits this season (342).
- The Cincinnati Reds rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.215).
- The San Diego Padres rank 1st in the league for hits this season (455).
- The San Diego Padres rank 3rd in the league for batting average this season (.258).
Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Prediction
I’m not excited to get behind either Matt Waldron or Frankie Montas, and I’d give the slight edge to the Reds because of Montas success at home this season. However, both pitchers have been shaky and both the Padres and Reds have underachieved as a team. With that said, the Padres are playing the better ball this week and are better off than the Reds at the moment. There’s still a lot of ball left, but it might be time to admit the Reds aren’t a good team. Give me the Padres and the cheap price in this quick turnaround Thursday afternoon.
