Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 9-12-24 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, September 12th at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 84-62 this year and they have won three of their last five games. Cleveland is coming off of a series win against the White Sox, where they won all three games by at least two runs. Prior to that series, the Guardians lost two out of three against the Dodgers, won two out of three against the Royals, and won two out of three against the Pirates. Cleveland is 7-3 in their last 10 games and they are first in the AL Central, ahead of Kansas City, Minnesota, and Detroit.

The Cleveland pitching staff has a 3.77 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a .232 opponent batting average. The Guardians’ offense has scored 657 runs with a .239 batting average and a .310 on-base percentage. Jose Ramirez is batting .270 with 34 home runs and 106 RBI’s for the Guardians this season. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 71-75 this season and they have lost five of their last seven games. Tampa Bay is coming off of a series loss against Philadelphia, where they dropped all three games. Prior to that series, the Rays won two out of three against the Orioles, split four games with the Twins, and lost two out of three against the Padres. Tampa Bay is 4-7 in their last 11 games and they are fourth in the AL East. The Rays will meet the Red Sox after this series.

The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.90 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a .239 opponent batting average. The Rays’ offense has scored 561 runs with a .231 batting average and a .305 on-base percentage. Yandy Diaz is batting .281 with 14 home runs and 65 RBI’s for the Rays this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Gavin Williams, who is 3-8 with a 5.25 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP Over 60.0 innings pitched this year. Williams has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Ryan Pepiot, who is 8-6 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 113.0 innings pitched this season. Pepiot has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. 

Why the Rays will beat the Guardians

• The Rays have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The Guardians have lost seven of their last eight games as favorites against AL East opponents following a road win.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last 11 games as road underdogs against AL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites against the Rays following a win.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games against the Guardians.
• The Guardians have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last six games as home favorites against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Guardians’ last five home games against AL East opponents has gone OVER the total runs line.
• Eleven of the Rays’ last 13 road games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last four games between the Rays and Guardians.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last three games as road underdogs against AL Central opponents.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Lane Thomas has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Guardians’ last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians’ last 12 games as home favorites against AL East opponents.
• Steven Kwan has hit a home run in each of the Guardians’ last two home games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one total base in each of the Guardians’ last 12 games as home favorites against AL East opponents.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one Single in eight of the Guardians’ last nine games against the Rays.
• Jose Ramirez has scored at least one run in each of the Guardians’ last eight home games against AL East opponents.
• Josh Naylor has recorded a Double in each of the Guardians’ last four night games against opponents that held a losing record.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one RBI in three of his last four appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Josh Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays’ last six night games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with the Rays as road underdogs against the Guardians.
• Josh Lowe has recorded at least one total base in each of the Rays’ last six night games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Josh Lowe has recorded at least one Single in eight of his nine previous appearances against the Guardians after playing the previous day.
• Yandy Diaz has scored at least one run in four of his five previous road appearances against the Guardians after playing the previous day.

Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 

Cleveland comes into this matchup with a decent lead in the AL Central and they are 43-25 at home, while Tampa Bay is just 34-37 on the road. The Rays have had solid pitching for most of the season, but their offense is ranked 28th in runs scored. Tampa Bay has scored three runs or fewer in 15 of their last 23 games, but they could find success against Williams, who has been pretty bad this season.

The Rays are starting Pepiot, who has been very good over the last few months and they are 5-2 in his last seven outings. I don’t like the Tampa Bay offense at all, but I think Pepiot will give them a chance to win. Take the Rays here.