Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction 4/18/25 MLB Picks Today

The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Chicago Cubs meet Friday in MLB action from Wrigley Field. This will be the first installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Diamondbacks vs Cubs pick.

Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

Arizona already faced the Cubs in the first series of the season, splitting four games with a pair of victories. Next came wins in two of three outings versus the New York Yankees in the next set. Arizona would then lose two of three versus the Washington Nationals ahead of winning two installments in a three-game series against the Orioles. After a 7-0 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers in the opener of the weekend set, the Diamondbacks managed a pair of wild victories in the next pair to take the series. Tuesday was a 10-4 win over Miami, then in game two the Diamondbacks managed to power out another win 6-2. Arizona got home runs from four different players in that one, while starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt had a solid outing with 5.2 innings, one earned, five hits, two walks and six strikeouts.

In the Thursday finale against Miami, Arizona scored twice in both the first and fourth innings in a 6-4 win. Starter Eduardo Rodriguez posted 5.1 innings with 10 hits but only one earned run.

For the starting pitcher role in Fridays’ opener the Diamondbacks will send out Corbin Burnes. This year Burnes is 0-1 with a 5.28 ERA in three starts and 15.1 innings overall. Burnes is 60-37 with a 3.22 ERA in 202 career games (141 starts) at the MLB level.

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

Over on the Cubs’ side, after their opener split versus Arizona, they swept the Oakland Athletics and then won two of three versus the San Diego Padres. Chicago would keep it up with wins in two of three games versus both the Texas Rangers and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Chicago split the first pair in their early-week set versus the San Diego Padres 10-4 (loss) and 2-1 (win) for a shot at another series victory.

In the Wednesday rubber match the Cubs had a very brief lead in the third inning but soon fell behind in an eventual loss 4-2. Chicago managed six team hits in that one, with three of them coming from Ian Happ. Pete Crow-Armstrong added a solo home run, while Carson Kelly had a hit and a run. Matthew Boyd was the starter in that one, and he gave up two earned on six hits and two walks over 5.1 innings of work.

As starter for Friday the Cubs will go with Colin Rea. So far Rea has a 1.00 ERA without a decision in four games (one start). He’s also got one save. Over 98 career games (77 starts), Rea is 26-20 with a 4.50 ERA overall.

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won each of their last six games as underdogs against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Diamondbacks have lost four of their last five games as favorites against the Cubs following a win.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as underdogs against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites against the Cubs following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have lost the first inning in three of their last four day games against National League opponents.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last six games at Wrigley Field against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six day games against National League opponents.

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won each of their last six games after playing the previous day.
• The Cubs have lost four of their last five home games against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line each of their last six road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six home games following a road loss.
• The Diamondbacks have won the first inning in each of their last three road games against NL Central opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in four of their last five road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in each of their last four road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last seven games between the Diamondbacks and Cubs at Wrigley Field have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Diamondbacks’ last six day games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last seven games as underdogs.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last five day games.

Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction

I’ll stick with the Cubs, but I’m probably not touching it. It’ll be interesting to see what Rea can do in the start—and what the bullpen can do behind him. Rea is coming off 3.2 innings versus the Dodgers, giving up four hits and a walk with one earned run. In his two outings prior to that, Rea gave up no earned over 5.0 frames, four hits (all in one game) and no walks. As for Burnes, he’s had some mixed results this year. Over his three starts overall, Burnes is 0-1 with nine earned runs in 15.1 innings total on 15 hits and nine walks. He put up three earned on four hits and two walks in 6.0 innings versus the Brewers in his last outing.

Chicago has two or fewer runs in four of their last seven games, going 3-4 in that time. I’d like to see the Cubs get past that threshold offensively here.