Miami Marlins (16-17) vs. Chicago Cubs (16-16)
May 6, 2023 2:20 pm EDT
The Line: Chicago Cubs -171 / Miami Marlins +157; Over/Under: +9
(Get latest betting odds)
The Miami Marlins and Chicago Cubs meet Saturday in MLB action at Wrigley Field. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.
The Miami Marlins have scored 10 runs in their last 3 games and 4 or more runs in 6 of their last 10 games. The Marlins have won 8 of their last 12 games when scoring 4 or more runs. Luis Arraez leads the Marlins with 45 hits and 12 RBI, while Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jon Berti have combined for 53 hits and 21 RBI. Bryan Hoeing gets the ball, and he is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA and 6 strikeouts this season. Hoeing is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 5 strikeouts in his career against the Cubs.
The Chicago Cubs have scored 8 runs in their last 3 games and 3 or fewer runs in 6 of their last 10 games. The Cubs have lost 8 straight games when scoring 3 or fewer runs. Nico Hoerner leads the Cubs with 43 hits and 18 RBI, while Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ have combined for 67 hits and 26 RBI. Drew Smyly gets the ball, and he is 3-1 with a 2.83 ERA and 29 strikeouts this season. Smyly is 4-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 30 strikeouts in his career against the Marlins.
The Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 Saturday games and 5-2 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series. The Cubs are 2-9 in their last 11 Saturday games and 2-6 in their last 8 overall. The over is 8-3 in Marlins last 11 overall. The under is 10-1 in Cubs last 11 overall. The Marlins are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Chicago and 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
I’m not thrilled to get behind Bryan Hoeing and the Marlins, who are struggling this week, but I can’t lay this price with Drew Smyly. Yes, Smyly is off to a strong start this season, but he’s also Smyly, a middle of the road pitcher for his career and not a guy I’m looking to back as big favorites. Also, the Cubs aren’t lighting the world on fire this week overall. Give me the road dog.
