Cubs vs Padres Prediction 7/1/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Cubs vs Padres prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, July 1st at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 48-38 this year after they won the first two games in this series by scores of 3-2 and 9-7. In game two, Chicago led 9-3 in the sixth inning, but they nearly blew the huge lead in the later innings. The Cubs recorded 13 hits in the game and they were led by Swanson, who went 3-4 with two home runs and three RBIs. Boyd allowed eight hits and three earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Rolison got the save. Prior to this series, Chicago won two out of three against the Brewers and all four against the Mets. 

This season, Chicago has a 4.25 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .241 opponent batting average, while they have scored 425 runs with a .243 batting average and a .338 on base percentage. Michael Busch has led the Cubs with 10 home runs and 46 RBIs, while Ian Happ has added 17 home runs and 41 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Colin Rea, who is 5-5 with a 4.80 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 84.1 innings pitched this year. 

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are 43-41 this season after they lost game two by a score of 7-9 on Tuesday. San Diego cut the deficit from 9-3 to 9-7 in the eighth inning, but couldn’t get any closer in the loss. The Padres recorded 13 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Sheets, who went 1-2 with one home run and three RBIs. Sears allowed eight hits and six earned runs over 4.2 innings for the loss, while Peralta threw 1.2 scoreless innings in relief. Prior to this series, San Diego lost two out of three against the Dodgers, but did win all three against the Braves before that. 

This season, San Diego has a 3.94 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while they have scored 330 runs with a .223 batting average and a .299 on base percentage. Manny Machado has led the Padres with 16 home runs and 46 RBIs, while Gavin Sheets has added 14 home runs and 38 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Walker Buehler, who is 5-3 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 78.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won nine of their last 10 games against National League opponents.
• The Padres have lost nine of their last 10 road games against National League opponents.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 day games against National League opponents.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in four of their last five games as favorites against the Padres.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven home games.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in five of their last six day games against the Padres at Wrigley Field.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last six day games against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
• The Cubs have lost three of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last six day games against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in 14 of their last 16 home games after playing the previous day.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in four of their last five road day games.

Total Runs Facts

• Four of the last five games between the Padres and Cubs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Padres’ last five road games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of Walker Buehler’s last six appearances as a starter.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in nine of the Cubs’ last 10 day games against National League opponents.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit a home run in five of the Cubs’ last six games as favorites against NL West opponents.
• Colin Rea has recorded four or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 appearances in day games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances after playing the previous day.
• Colin Rea has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances against former teams.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong is one of only two players to record 10+ Home Runs and 4+ Triples this season.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Manny Machado has hit a home run in two of the Padres’ last three games.
• Walker Buehler has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances against the Cubs.
• Samad Taylor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances.
• Walker Buehler has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with his team as a road underdog against NL opponents .
• Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks T7th in the league in Steals (19) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks this season (377).
• The Cubs rank 30th in the league for home runs allowed this season (127).
• The Padres rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (323).
• The Padres rank 30th in the league for hits this season (600).

Cubs vs Padres Prediction

Chicago comes into this matchup on a four game winning streak and they have scored 8+ runs in two of those four wins. The Cubs are 25-17 at home this year, while the Padres are 20-20 on the road. San Diego has lost four in a row and they have allowed 31 runs during that span. The Padres are starting Buehler, who has allowed one earned run in five straight starts, while Rea has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five outings. I really like how Buehler has pitched over the last five weeks, so I will back the Padres here.