Cubs vs Reds Prediction 7/11/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Cubs vs Reds Prediction for this MLB matchup on Saturday, July 11^th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have a 43-50 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL Central. They have a 22-26 home record and are coming off a 4-0 home win against the Cubs. They will face the Rockies and the Mariners next.

The Cincinnati Reds have a .228 batting average this season, .309 OBP and .392 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 4.48 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s best hitter with a .272 batting average. Sal Stewart leads the team in RBI with 65, adding a team-high 19 home runs.

Nick Lodolo (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds, and he has a 3-2 record, 4.68 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have a 52-42 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL Central. They have a 25-23 away record and are coming off a 0-4 road loss against the Reds. They will face the Twins and the Tigers next.

The Chicago Cubs have a .243 batting average this season, .336 OBP and .409 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 4.35 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the team’s best hitter with a .293 batting average. He also adds a team-high 21 home runs, while Dansby Swanson leads the team in RBI with 58.

Javier Assad (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Chicago Cubs, and he has a 6-1 record, 4.15 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

The Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends: July 11, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Lodolo      Record this season: 3-2      ERA: 4.68
• Home Record: 2-2
• Last 5 against Cubs: 0-1

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The home team has won each of the last 10 games between the Cubs and Reds.
• The Cubs have lost four of their last five games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have covered the run line in 17 of their last 18 Saturday games as home underdogs.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in 14 of their last 17 games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games at Great American Ball Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games at Great American Ball Park.
• The Reds have won the first inning in five of their last six games as underdogs against the Cubs at Great American Ball Park.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Javier Assad      Record this season: 6-1      ERA: 4.15
• Road Record: 4-1
• Last 5 against Reds: 0-1

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Reds have lost 10 of their last 11 home games following a win.
• The Cubs have won eight of their last nine games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Cubs have covered the run line each of their last six Saturday night games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in 11 of their last 14 night games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Reds’ last seven night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Cubs’ last five road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Reds’ last eight home games against National League opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in 11 of the Cubs’ last 12 road games.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Elly De La Cruz has hit a home run in three of the Reds’ last four games as home underdogs against the Cubs.
• Nick Lodolo has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last six home appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with the Reds as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in three of the Cubs’ last four games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Javier Assad has recorded four or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Dansby Swanson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 15 night games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Javier Assad has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong is one of only two players to record 10+ Home Runs and 4+ Triples this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Reds rank 29th in the league for strikeouts against this season (884).
• The Reds rank 28th in the league for hits this season (711).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks this season (407).
• The Cubs rank 29th in the league for home runs allowed this season (144).

Cubs vs Reds Prediction

The Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Reds, but have lost two of their last five visits in Cincinnati.

In this Cubs vs Reds, the Cubs are coming as -120 road favorites. I like the Reds in this one with Nick Lodolo on the mound, who has been on fire lately, having given up just one run across his last three starts. On the flip side, Assad has been terrible on the road with a 5.90 road ERA, while Cubs’ available bullpen arms are weaker than the ones available for the Reds. Take the Reds to keep rolling and win this one at home as well.