Cubs vs Reds Prediction 8/5/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Cubs vs Reds prediction for this MLB game on Monday, August 4th at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 65-46 this season after they won two out of three against Baltimore by scores of 1-0, 3-4, and 5-3. In their game three win, Chicago blew a 3-2 lead in the ninth inning, but they answered with two in the bottom of the ninth for the victory. The Cubs recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Turner, who went 1-1 with one home run and two RBIs in the win. Chicago started Rea, who allowed five hits and two earned runs over 4.2 innings, while Palencia blew the save, but picked up the win. 

Prior to that series, the Cubs lost two out of three against the Brewers, but did win two out of three against the White Sox before that. Chicago has won three of their last four games and they are currently second in the NL Central standings. The Chicago pitching staff has a 3.92 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and a .246 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 579 runs with a .255 batting average and a .324 on base percentage this season. Seiya Suzuki has led Chicago with 26 home runs and 82 RBIs, while Pete Crow-Armstrong has added 27 home runs and 78 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Michael Soroka, who is 3-8 with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 81.1 innings pitched this season. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 58-54 this year after they lost two out of three against Atlanta by scores of 11-12, 3-2, and 2-4. In their game three loss, Cincinnati scored in the first inning on Saturday night, but only managed one run during the rest of the game on Sunday afternoon. The Reds recorded 10 hits in the game and they were led by McLain and Hays, who both had one RBI in the loss. Cincinnati started Burns, who pitched one inning, while Suter picked up the loss on Sunday. 

Prior to that series, the Reds lost two out of three against the Dodgers, but did win all three against the Rays before that. Cincinnati has lost four of their last six games and they are currently third in the NL Central standings. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.89 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .235 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 512 runs with a .247 batting average and a .321 on base percentage this season. Elly De La Cruz has led Cincinnati with 19 home runs and 72 RBIs, while Spencer Steer has added 12 home runs and 46 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Nick Lodolo, who is 8-6 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 128.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Reds will beat the Cubs

• The Cubs have lost each of their last eight Monday games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have won four of their last five Monday games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games following a win.
• The Reds have covered the run line in six of their last seven night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in five of their last six night games against the Cubs.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs’ last six games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Reds’ last seven road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Reds’ last nine games at Wrigley Field.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Nico Hoerner has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 14 night games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Michael Soroka has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances with his team as a home favorite against NL opponents.
• Seiya Suzuki has recorded a Double in five of the Cubs’ last six games against the Reds.
• Carson Kelly has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances at Wrigley Field against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Elly De La Cruz has hit a home run in two of the Reds’ last three games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Miguel Andujar has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 18 appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Nick Lodolo has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last eight appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Trevino has recorded at least one Double in each of his last three appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Nick Lodolo has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank T1st in the league for runs scored this season (579).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for RBIs this season (564).
• The Reds rank 6th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.235).
• The Reds rank 7th in the league for hits allowed this season (879).

Cubs vs Reds Prediction 

Chicago was able to escape with the win on Sunday afternoon in game three of their series, but they had some bullpen issues in games two and three. The Cubs are 35-20 at home this year, while the Reds are 25-28 on the road. Cincinnati got the chance to play at Bristol Motor Speedway on Saturday/Sunday, but they really had issues scoring in that game. The Reds are starting Lodolo, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight games. The Cubs are going with Soroka, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight outings with the Nationals. I really like how Lodolo has pitched recently and the Cubs bullpen is shaky right now, so I like the Reds here.