Diamondbacks vs Brewers Prediction 4/28/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Diamondbacks vs Brewers Prediction for this MLB matchup on Tuesday, April 28^th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers have a 14-13 record this season and are sitting in the fifth place of the NL Central. They have an 8-7 home record and are coming off a 5-0 win at home against the Pirates. Their previous three games were a 3-6 and a 0-6 loss at home against the Pirates, and a 4-5 loss on the road to the Tigers.

The Brewers have a .231 batting average this season, .329 OBP and .349 Slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.82 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. William Contreras is the team’s best hitter with a .263 batting average. Garrett Mitchell leads the team in RBI with 19, and Gary Sanchez adds a team‑high 5 home runs.

Chad Patrick (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers, and he has a 1-1 record, 2.35 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.

Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 15-12 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the NL West. They have a 6-6 away record and are coming off a 12-7 win at home against the Padres. Their previous three games were a 4-6 loss at home against the Padres, and a 1-4 loss and an 11-7 win at home against the White Sox.

The Diamondbacks have a .255 batting average this season, .310 OBP and .426 Slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.53 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Corbin Carroll is the team’s best hitter with a .287 batting average. Ildemaro Vargas leads the team in RBI with 20, also adding a team‑high 6 home runs.

Merrill Kelly (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks, and he has a 1-1 record, 9.31 ERA and 2.28 WHIP.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends: April 28, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Chad Patrick      Record this season: 1-1      ERA: 2.35
• Home Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 0-0

Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win

• The Diamondbacks have lost seven of their last eight night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Brewers have won each of their last four games following a home win.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last five games against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in six of their last eight night games against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The Brewers have led after 5 innings in each of their last five night games against the Diamondbacks.
• The Diamondbacks have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against National League opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last nine Tuesday games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Merrill Kelly      Record this season: 1-1      ERA: 9.31
• Road Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Brewers: 3-1

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Brewers have lost each of their last four games as favorites against NL West opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have won five of their last six games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last 16 games as road underdogs against National League opponents following a win.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as favorites against the Diamondbacks following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven night games.
• The Brewers have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Brewers’ last six games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Diamondbacks’ last five games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Brewers’ last six games as favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Diamondbacks’ last seven road games against National League opponents.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• William Contreras has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against the Diamondbacks.
• Andrew Vaughn has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Brewers as home favorites against NL opponents.
• Brice Turang ranks T9th in the league in Steals (7) this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Ildemaro Vargas has hit at least one home run in each of the Diamondbacks’ last two night games.
• Merrill Kelly has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last nine appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Ildemaro Vargas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 23 appearances.
• Merrill Kelly has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances against the Brewers.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Brewers rank 1st in the league for steals this season (36).
• The Brewers rank 29th in the league for hits this season (206).
• The Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for triples this season (10).
• The Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for walks this season (70).

Diamondbacks vs Brewers Prediction

The Diamondbacks are 4-2 in their last 6 meetings against the Brewers and are 4-3 in their last 7 visits in Milwaukee.

In this Diamondbacks vs Brewers Prediction, the Brewers are coming as -109 home favorites. Both teams have not been in good form lately, as they are 1-4 and 2-4 in their last 5 and 6 games respectively, but the Brewers have a pitching advantage today, as Chad Patrick goes up against a struggling Merrill Kelly. Patrick has been almost unhittable lately, having given up just two runs across his last four starts, while Kelly has given up 10 runs in his two starts this season. On top of that, Milwaukee has both a better bullpen and is better against right-handed pitching, so this sets up as a nice home win in this matchup. Take the Brewers on the moneyline.