Guardians vs Phillies Prediction 5/9/25 MLB Picks Today

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Cleveland Guardians meet Friday in MLB action from Progressive Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Guardians vs Phillies Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Philadelphia Phillies will send out Aaron Nola for the start here, and Nola is 1-5 with a 4.61 ERA and 45 strikeouts this season. This will be Nola’s second career start against the Guardians. The Cleveland Guardians will send out Gavin Williams for the start here, and Williams is 2-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 37 strikeouts this season. This will be Williams’ second career start against the Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game looking to add on to their 7-6 win over the Rays from Thursday’s series finale to improve to 22-15 on the year. After this series, the Phillies will head home for a set against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Phillies Win Three Straight & 8 Of Last 10

Nick Castellanos has 39 hits with 10 doubles, including 4 home runs and 21 RBI, while Kyle Schwarber has 35 hits with a team-high 12 home runs and 28 RBIs as well on the year. Bryce Harper has 6 stolen bases, 6 home runs, and 20 RBIs. Trea Turner also has 44 hits with a team-high 9 stolen bases. Max Kepler has 7 doubles and Bryson Stott has 5 doubles, 2 triples, 3 homers, and 20 RBIs, while Stott also has 7 stolen bases this season.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last 10 night games against American League opponents.
• The Guardians have lost each of their last four games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last four games against American League opponents after going to extra innings.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six night games following a road win.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in each of the Phillies’ last two games against the Guardians.
• Bryce Harper has recorded a Double in four of the Phillies’ last five road games against AL Central opponents.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Phillies’ last five road games against AL Central opponents.
• Alec Bohm has scored a run in eight of his last nine road appearances against AL opponents.
• Aaron Nola has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances in night games against AL teams that held a winning record.
• Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last 11 appearances in night games.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one Single in each of the Phillies’ last seven games.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last seven road games.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks T1st in the league in Home Runs (12) this season.

Cleveland Guardians Recap

The Cleveland Guardians come into this game looking to add on to their 8-6 win over the Washington Nationals from Wednesday’s series finale to improve to 22-15 on the year. After this series, the Guardians will square off against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Guardians Pick Up Another Series Win

Steven Kwan leads the Guardians with 49 hits as part of a .333 batting average and 4 home runs, 7 doubles, and 17 RBIs. Kyle Manzardo has 23 hits with 3 doubles, a triple, 8 home runs, and a team-high 21 RBIs as well this year. Gabriel Arias has a team-high 7 doubles, but also 33 strikeouts, and Manzardo has a team-high 33 strikeouts so far this season. Arias has also added 4 home runs and 16 RBIs, and Jose Ramirez has chipped in 5 home runs and 17 RBIs.

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Phillies have lost each of their last four games as favorites against AL Central opponents following a win.
• The Guardians have won each of their last four games as home underdogs following a road win.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine night games against American League opponents following a road win.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in seven of their last eight home games following a road win.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Carlos Santana has hit a home run in each of the Guardians’ last two night games.
• Jose Ramirez has recorded a Double in three of the Guardians’ last four games as home underdogs against NL opponents.
• Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Guardians’ last five home games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Steven Kwan has scored at least one run in each of the Guardians’ last five night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 12 appearances against NL East opponents.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances against NL East opponents.
• Steven Kwan ranks T3rd in the league in Hits (49) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Guardians’ last five games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Phillies’ last four road games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.

Guardians vs Phillies Prediction

I’m on the Phillies here. I’m not the biggest fan of Aaron Nola, but he’s starting to show signs of turning things around after a rough start to the year. Likewise, I think that the Phillies’ bats back him up here against a pitcher in Williams who has had problems with giving up a lot of hits and hard contact this season. Cleveland’s got some solid bats themselves, but I think Nola outpitches Williams here and leads the Phillies to a win to start the series. Give me the Phillies in this one.