Guardians vs Rays Prediction 9/6/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Guardians vs Rays Prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, September 6^th at the George M. Steinbrenner Field in the third game of this series, with both teams being tied 1-1 wins. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 71-70 record this season and are sitting on the 4^th place of the AL East. The Rays have a 38-34 home record and are 61-71 in over/under. They are coming off a 1-7 home defeat by the Guardians, that ended their seven-game winning streak. Over is 5-1 in their last 6 games and are playing the Cubs and the White Sox next.

The Rays have a .252 batting average this season, .314 OBP and .403 slugging percentage. Tampa’s pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.  Yandy Diaz leads the Rays with 153 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with .293 batting average. Junior Caminero leads the team in RBI, with 103 and in home runs, with 41.

Shane Baz (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 9-11 record, 4.98 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.

Cleveland Guardians Preview

The Cleveland Guardians have a 70-70 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the AL Central. The Guardians have a 35-37 road record and are 66-69 in over/under. They are coming off a 7-1 road victory over the Rays, and are 2-4 in their last 6 games. Over is 4-1 in their last 5 games and are playing the Royals and the White Sox next.

The Guardians have a .224 batting average this season, .294 OBP and .369 Slugging percentage. Cleveland’s pitching staff has a 3.95 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Stephen Kwan leads the Guardians with 147 hits, while Jose Ramirez is the team’s best hitter with a .283 batting average. He also leads the team both in RBI, with 73, and in home runs with 27.

Tanner Bibee (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Guardians, and he has a 9-11 record, 4.77 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Guardians have lost each of their last nine games as road underdogs against AL East opponents following a win.
• The Rays have won seven of their last eight games.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven road games against AL East opponents following a road win.
• The Rays have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in eight of their last nine games.
• The Rays have won the first inning in three of their last four games.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games as favorites.

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The underdogs have won four of the Rays’ last five games.
• The Rays have lost three of their last four games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as home favorites against American League opponents.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in 13 of their last 15 night games against teams that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Rays’ last eight home games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Guardians’ last five games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Rays’ last 11 night games at George M. Steinbrenner Field.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rays rank 1st in the league for steals this season (176).
• The Rays are one of only two teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
• The Guardians rank 30th in the league for hits this season (1028).
• The Guardians rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.224).

Guardians vs Rays Prediction

The Guardians are 5-2 in their last 7 meetings against the Rays, but the Rays are 3-2 in their last 4 meetings in Tampa. Under is 9-2-1 in their last 12 meetings. Both pitchers have been shaky at best this season, with a combined 9.75 ERA, and are both in terrible form lately, as they have a 5.88 and 5.90 ERA across their last 5 starts respectively. In their only start against the other team this season, Baz gave up 3 runs and Bibee 5, and the Rays are better against right-handed pitching, so I am expecting some runs today. Take the over 8.5 runs in this one.