Guardians vs Yankees Prediction 4/21/25 MLB Picks Today

The New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians meet Monday in MLB action from Progressive Field. This will be the first installment in a three-game series. Here’s a Guardians vs Yankees prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Guardians vs Yankees pick.

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The Yankees posted a high-flying three-game sweep over the Milwaukee Brewers in their first set this year, then lost a series versus the Arizona Diamondbacks before a series win over the Pittsburgh Pirates. New York lost two of three to the Detroit Tigers and San Francisco Giants next before a sweep over the Kansas City Royals. After taking wins 6-3 Thursday and 1-0 Friday in their four-game set versus the Tampa Bay Rays, in game three the Yankees had an 8-4 lead going into the bottom of the ninth, but ended up losing a tough one 10-8 in the end after an implosion over the next couple of frames. Aaron Judge had three hits, a run and and three RBI, while Trent Grisham posted a solo homer. Starter Carlos Carrasco put up 4.0 innings with four earned runs on six hits and two walks.

In the Sunday finale, New York held Tampa Bay to just two hits along the way to a nice win, 4-0. Cody Bellinger (two RBI), Trent Grisham, and Austin Wells each had home runs. Starting pitcher Max Fried left with 7.1 innings, two hits, two walks, and two Ks.
As the starting pitcher for Monday’s opener, the Yankees will send out Clarke Schmidt. So far this year, Schmidt has a 4.76 ERA without a decision over 5.2 innings in his lone start. In his career, Schmidt is 19-20 with a 3.96 ERA in 84 games (54 starts).

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

Over on the Guardians’ side, they won a series versus the Kansas City Royals before getting swept by the Padres in their first two sets this year. Cleveland lost another series versus the Los Angeles Angels, then took a sweep over the Chicago White Sox. After another series win over the Royals, the Guardians lost two of three versus the Orioles. Cleveland would bounce back with a Friday victory, 10-7 over the Pittsburgh Pirates in their weekend series opener, then on Saturday, the Guardians put up nine hits in a 3-0 shutout victory. Kyle Manzardo had a solo homer, and Steven Kwan came away with two hits and an RBI. Starter Ben Lively lasted 5.1 innings with four hits, one walk, and three strikeouts.

In the Sunday finale, Cleveland eked out a tight 10-inning win, 5-4. Starter Logan Allen put up 5.2 innings with one earned run on five hits and a walk.

It’ll be Gavin Williams in the starter slot for the Guardians on Monday. This year, Williams is 1-1 with a 4.58 ERA in four starts over 19.2 innings. Williams is 7-16 with a 4.10 ERA in 36 total starts during his career.

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Guardians have won four of their last five games as home underdogs following a road win.
• The Yankees have lost four of their last five road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line each of their last five road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in four of their last five games after going to extra innings.
• The Guardians have led after 3 innings in six of their last eight home games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Guardians have led after 5 innings in each of their last four night games at Progressive Field against American League opponents.

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Yankees have won each of their last 15 night games against AL Central opponents following a road win.
• The Guardians have lost each of their last six games against the Yankees following a win.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last 15 night games against AL Central opponents following a road win.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven night games against the Yankees following a win.
• The Yankees have led after 5 innings in each of their last three games.
• The Yankees have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games.
• The Yankees have won the first inning in three of their last four games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Yankees’ last eight games as favorites against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Guardians’ last seven home games following an extra innings win have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Guardians’ last eight games as underdogs.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Yankees’ last four road games against AL Central opponents.

Guardians vs Yankees Prediction

I’ll take a stab at the Guardians here. Williams does need a bounce-back start, though. In his last outing, Williams took a loss versus the Orioles on April 16, posting five earned runs on four hits and four walks in 6.2 innings of work. Prior to that, however, Williams had a couple of pretty good starts in the bag, going 1-0 with 8.0 innings and three earned runs versus the Angels and White Sox. He’ll need to be on point Monday in order to work his way past the Yankees’ bats. As for Schmidt, he’s only got the one appearance this year, posting a no-decision on April 16 versus the Royals. Schmidt went 5.2 innings with three earned runs on four hits and two walks alongside two Ks in that one.

Cleveland got a couple of big home runs courtesy of Kyle Manzardo and Steven Kwan in their Sunday win over Cleveland, and overall, the pitching was great (outside of Emmanuel Clase’s rough day). The Guardians did use a lot of guys out of the pen, though, so it’d be nice to see Williams post a quality outing Monday.