Guardians vs Yankees Prediction 4/22/25 MLB Picks Today

The New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians meet Tuesday in MLB action from Progressive Field. This will be the second installment in a three-game series. Here’s a Guardians vs Yankees prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Guardians vs Yankees pick.

New York Yankees Betting Preview

New York opened the season with an offense-heavy three-game sweep over the Milwaukee Brewers, then lost a set against the Arizona Diamondbacks ahead of a series win versus the Pittsburgh Pirates. New York would then lose the next two series versus the Detroit Tigers and San Francisco Giants, then recover with a sweep of the Kansas City Royals. Following wins 6-3 on Thursday and 1-0 Friday in their weekend series against the Tampa Bay Rays, New York lost 10-8 in the Saturday game three, thanks to a late breakdown. On Sunday in the finale, the Yankees gave up just two hits along the way to a 4-0 shutout win. Trent Grisham, Austin Wells, and Cody Bellinger (two RBI) each had home runs, accounting for all of New York’s RBI.

In their Monday opener versus Cleveland, the Yankees gave up four runs in the bottom of the third inning on the way to a 6-4 defeat. Jazz Chisholm had two RBI in the loss, as did Jasson Dominguez. Starter Clarke Schmidt lasted just 4.0 innings with five earned runs on seven hits and three walks.

As a starter for Tuesday’s matchup, New York is sending out Will Warren. This year, over four starts, Warren is 1-0 with a 5.17 ERA over 15.2 innings total. Warren is 1-3 with an 8.22 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) over his career.

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

Over on the Guardians’ side, they took a series victory over the Kansas City Royals before ending up on the wrong end of a sweep by the Padres in their debut pair of series this year. Cleveland would then lose another set versus the Los Angeles Angels, then bounce back with a sweep against the Chicago White Sox. Following a series win over the Royals, the Guardians would fall in two of three versus the Orioles. Cleveland then took their first two weekend games versus the Pirates, 10-7 and 3-0. On Sunday in the finale, the Guardians scored a run in the top of the 10th inning to cap off a tense 5-4 victory. Steven Kwan (two RBI) and Kyle Manzardo (three RBI) did all of the heavy lifting on offense.

On Monday, Cleveland posted 10 team hits and gave up 10 on the other side as well. The Guardians’ Jose Ramirez finished with four RBI, buoyed by the big third inning. Gavin Williams managed 6.1 innings at the start with two earned runs on seven hits and a pair of walks.

Starter for Tuesday’s game two will be Tanner Bibee. This year, Bibee is 1-2 with a 5.85 ERA in four starts. Bibee is 23-14 with a 3.41 career ERA over 60 starts at the MLB level and has a total of 335.2 innings in the bag.

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Guardians have won each of their last three games as underdogs.
• The Yankees have lost five of their last six road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line each of their last six road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in each of their last four games.
• The Yankees have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Guardians have led after 5 innings in each of their last five night games at Progressive Field against American League opponents.

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Guardians have lost each of their last nine games as underdogs against the Yankees following a home win.
• The Yankees have won each of their last six night games against AL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight night games against the Yankees following a home win.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last eight Tuesday night games as road favorites against AL Central opponents.
• The Yankees have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games.
• The Yankees have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Guardians’ last six night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Yankees’ last six games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Guardians’ last nine games as underdogs.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Yankees’ last eight games against AL Central opponents.

Guardians vs Yankees Prediction

I’ll probably lean toward New York here. Much of that is due to Bibee’s struggles over his last three starts. He’s got one decent one mixed in there, going 4.2 innings with no earned runs on three hits and four walks in a no-decision versus the Royals on April 11. In Bibee’s other two starts during that trio, however, he’s gone 0-2 with 13 earned runs in 9.2 innings on 14 hits and five walks total. He’ll need quite a rebound for Tuesday’s matchup. As for Warren, he’s got 6.2 innings over his last two starts with three earned on six hits and four walks. Warren posted just 1.2 innings in his most recent appearance on April 17.

The Yankees didn’t get a great outing from Schmidt in their Monday loss, but if there’s good news, it’s that the team only used a couple of arms out of the bullpen. New York should be fresh for Tuesday, but the pitching has to improve.