Milwaukee Brewers (26-18) vs. Houston Astros (20-25)
May 18, 2024 7:10 pm EDT
The Line: Houston Astros -150 / Milwaukee Brewers +130; Over/Under: +8.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article we will formulate a Houston Astros vs Milwaukee Brewers prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, May 18th at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game two in the series.
Houston Continues to Win
The Houston Astros are 20-25 this year and they have won six games in a row. Houston won game one in this series by a score of 5-4 on Friday night. Prior to this series, the Astros swept the Athletics in four games, won two out of three against the Tigers, and lost two out of three against the Yankees. Houston is five games below .500 on the season, but they have won eight of their last nine games and they are third in the AL West behind the Mariners and Rangers.
The Houston pitching staff has a 4.57 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a .250 opponent batting average. The Astros offense has scored 205 runs with a .262 batting average and a .328 on base percentage. Kyle Tucker is batting .288 with 13 home runs and 29 RBI’s for the Astros this season. Houston is just 26th in team ERA this season, but they have allowed two runs or fewer in four of their last five games.
Brewers are Leading the NL Central
The Milwaukee Brewers are 26-18 this season and they have lost three of their last five games. Milwaukee dropped game one in this series on Friday and will look to bounce back here. Prior to this series, the Brewers won two out of three against Pittsburgh, won three out of four against St. Louis, and lost two out of three against Kansas City. Milwaukee is just 6-7 in their last 13 games, but they are leading the NL Central by two games over the Cubs.
The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.99 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average. The Brewers offense has scored 227 runs with a .259 batting average and a .337 on base percentage. Willy Adames is batting .250 with seven home runs and 29 RBI’s for the Brewers this season. Milwaukee is third in the MLB in runs scored and they are 14th in team ERA, and they have scored at least four runs in nine of their last ten games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Justin Verlander, who is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 29.1 innings pitched this year. Verlander has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, but did allow seven earned runs and eight hits to the Yankees two starts ago. Verlander allowed two earned runs and six hits over 7.0 innings of work in his last home start. The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Bryse Wilson, who is 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 34.0 innings pitched this season. Wilson has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts, but has only lasted more than 4.1 innings in two of those outings.
Why the Houston Astros will win
The Astros have won each of their last six games.
The Brewers have lost five of their last six road games.
The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 night games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
The Astros have covered the run line each of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.
The Astros have led after 5 innings in each of their last six night games against the Brewers at Minute Maid Park.
The Brewers have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five road games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Astros’ last seven games as favorites against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Eight of the Brewers’ last nine games as underdogs against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last seven games as favorites against National League opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Brewers’ last four night games against AL West opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
The Houston Astros rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.262).
The Houston Astros rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (298).
The Milwaukee Brewers rank 2nd in the league for on-base percentage this season (.337).
The Milwaukee Brewers rank 3rd in the league for runs scored this season (227).
Houston Astros vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Houston is starting to play their best baseball of the season and they are looking for their seventh win in a row. The Astros are 12-12 at home and will have Verlander on the mound, who has been very good this year. Milwaukee is going with Bryse Wilson, who has some issues going five innings. The Brewers are a solid road team this year and their offense is much improved, but I can’t go against the hot team here. My Houston Astros vs Milwaukee Brewers prediction is for the Astros to get another win.
