Mariners vs Rays Prediction Prediction 7/12/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Mariners vs Rays Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, July 12^th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 56-37 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the AL East. They have a 35-14 home record and are coming off a 6-1 home win against the Mariners. They will face the Red Sox and the Blue Jays next.

The Tampa Bay Rays have a .260 batting average this season, .335 OBP and .403 Slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a 3.76 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Yandy Diaz is the team’s best hitter with a .320 batting average. Jonathan Aranda leads the team in RBI with 62, while Junior Caminero adds a team-high 28 home runs.

Ian Seymour (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Tampa Bay Rays, and he has a 6-1 record, 4.11 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.

Seattle Mariners Preview

The Seattle Mariners have a 47-49 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the AL West. They have a 20-29 away record and are coming off a 1-6 road loss against the Rays. They will face the Giants and the Reds next.

The Seattle Mariners have a .229 batting average this season, .310 OBP and .378 Slugging percentage. Seattle’s pitching staff has a 3.63 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Randy Arozarena is the team’s best hitter with a .288 batting average. Cole Young leads the team in RBI with 43, while Dominic Canzone adds a team-high 15 home runs.

Emerson Hancock (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Seattle Mariners, and he has a 6-4 record, 3.23 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.

Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends: July 12, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Ian Seymour      Record this season: 6-1      ERA: 4.11
• Home Record: 3-1
• Last 5 against Mariners: 0-0

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The home team has won each of the last nine games between the Mariners and Rays.
• The Mariners have lost each of their last seven road games.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the last seven games between the Mariners and Rays.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line each of their last six games at Tropicana Field against teams that held a winning record.
• The Rays have won the first inning in three of their last four day games at Tropicana Field.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in 12 of their last 13 games as favorites.
• The Mariners have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Emerson Hancock      Record this season: 6-4      ERA: 3.23
• Road Record: 3-2
• Last 5 against Rays: 0-0

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

• The Rays have lost nine of their last 13 games as favorites against AL West opponents following a home win.
• The Mariners have won four of their last five day games against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 games as home favorites against AL West opponents following a win.
• The Mariners have covered the run line in eight of their last nine day games against American League opponents.
• The Mariners have led after 3 innings in eight of their last 10 day games against American League opponents.
• The Mariners have led after 5 innings in five of their last six day games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the last seven games between the Mariners and Rays have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Mariners’ last eight games as underdogs against the Rays have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Mariners’ last 10 games.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of Ian Seymour’s last eight appearances as a starter.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Victor Mesa Jr. has hit a home run in three of his last four home appearances against AL opponents.
• Ian Seymour has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances.
• Ian Seymour has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances.
• Junior Caminero has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays’ last 12 home games against AL West opponents.
• Yandy Diaz ranks T3rd in the league in Hits (109) this season.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

• Cole Young has hit a home run in two of the Mariners’ last three games as underdogs.
• Emerson Hancock has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances against AL opponents.
• Emerson Hancock has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances.
• Cole Young has recorded at least one hit in each of his 10 previous appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (664).
• The Rays rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (247).
• The Mariners rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (238).
• The Mariners rank 1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (89).

Mariners vs Rays Prediction

The Rays have won their last five meetings against the Mariners, all of them in Tampa and the over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 meetings.

In this Mariners vs Rays Prediction, the Rays are coming as -130 home favorites. The Rays are going for a bullpen game and their relievers have been bad this season, ranking 19^th in baseball. Emerson Hancock will take the mound for the Mariners and has been in excellent form with just one earned runs in his last two starts and the Mariners have the 5^th-best bullpen in baseball to relief him, so I like them as road dogs in this spot. Take the Mariners on the moneyline for plus money.