Marlins vs Braves Prediction 5/21/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Marlins vs Braves prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, May 21st at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 22-28 this year after they lost two of the first three games in this series by scores of 12-0, 4-8, and 1-9. In game three, Miami led 1-0 in the first inning, but they failed to score over the last eight innings for the loss. The Marlins recorded four hits and they committed one error, while they were led by Hernandez, who went 0-3 with one RBI in the game. Junk allowed eight hits and eight earned runs over 5.0 innings for the loss, while Phillips threw three innings in relief. Prior to this series, Miami lost two out of three against the Rays and two out of three against the Twins. 

This season, Miami has a 4.30 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .228 opponent batting average, while they have scored 218 runs with a .246 batting average and a .322 on base percentage. Liam Hicks has led the Marlins with nine home runs and 42 RBIs, while Otto Lopez has added four home runs and 21 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Sandy Alcantara, who is 3-2 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 63.2 innings pitched this year. 

Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 34-16 this season after they won game three by a score of 9-1 on Wednesday night. Atlanta took a 3-1 lead in the second inning and they added five more in the eighth to put the game away. The Braves recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Riley, who went 1-3 with one home run and three RBIs. Sale allowed four hits and one earned run over 7.0 innings for the win, while Mederos closed out the game. Prior to this series, Atlanta won two out of three against the Red Sox and two out of three against the Cubs. 

This season, Atlanta has a 3.11 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and a .207 opponent batting average, while they have scored 267 runs with a .264 batting average and a .327 on base percentage. Matt Olson has led the Braves with 14 home runs and 42 RBIs, while Drake Baldwin has added 13 home runs and 38 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Spencer Strider, who is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over 14.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won three of their last four games as home underdogs following a loss.
• The Braves have lost six of their last nine games as road favorites against the Marlins following a win.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six night games at LoanDepot Park following a win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in 12 of their last 15 games as underdogs against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Braves have lost the first inning in each of their last seven games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five road games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The Braves have won each of their last seven games against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Marlins have lost each of their last six games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Braves have covered the run line in 17 of their last 18 games as favorites following a road win.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games following a home loss.
• The Braves have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Marlins’ last eight games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Braves’ last nine games as road favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last 15 games as road favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Marlins’ last 12 games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Xavier Edwards has hit a home run in four of the Marlins’ last six home games.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded five or more strikeouts in six of his seven previous home appearances against the Braves.
• Xavier Edwards has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last 17 home games against NL East opponents.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Austin Riley has hit a home run in two of the Braves’ last three games as favorites.
• Spencer Strider has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last nine Thursday appearances.
• Matt Olson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves’ last 12 games as favorites against NL opponents.
• Spencer Strider has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances.

Marlins vs Braves Prediction 

Atlanta stayed hot with another win on Wednesday night and they have scored 8+ runs in three of their last four games. The Braves are 18-8 on the road this year, while the Marlins are 15-14 at home. Miami has lost three of their last four games and they have allowed 5+ runs in four of their last five. The Marlins are starting Alcantara, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts, while Strider has allowed four earned runs over 14.2 innings. I am still not sold on Strider coming back from injury and Alcantara has been fine, so I like the Marlins at home in this one.