Marlins vs Padres Prediction 7/23/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Marlins vs Padres prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, July 23rd at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 47-53 this year after they split the first two games in this series by scores of 1-2 and 4-3. In their game two win, Miami nearly blew a 4-1 lead in the ninth, but they were able to hang on for the win. The Marlins recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Sanoja, Stowers, and Hernandez, who all had one RBI in the win. Miami started Cabrera, who allowed five hits and one earned run over 5.2 innings for the win, while Henriquez picked up the save. 

Prior to this series, the Marlins won two out of three against the Royals and two out of three against the Orioles. Miami has won five of their last seven games and they are currently third in the NL East standings. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.52 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .251 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 428 runs with a .254 batting average and a .315 on base percentage this season. Kyle Stowers has led Miami with 22 home runs and 61 RBIs, while Agustin Ramirez has added 14 home runs and 44 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Sandy Alcantara, who is 4-9 with a 7.14 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP over 97.0 innings pitched this year. 

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are 55-46 this season after they lost game two by a score of 4-3 on Tuesday night. San Diego cut the deficit to 2-1 in the third inning, but didn’t score again until the ninth for the loss. The Padres recorded seven hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Merrill, who had two RBIs in the loss. San Diego started Kolek, who allowed eight hits and three earned runs over 5.2 innings for the loss, while Morgan allowed one earned run in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Padres won two out of three against the Nationals and two out of three against the Phillies. San Diego has won three of their last five games and they are currently second in the NL West standings. The San Diego pitching staff has a 3.59 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and a .230 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 405 runs with a .246 batting average and a .315 on base percentage this season. Manny Machado has led San Diego with 18 home runs and 60 RBIs, while Fernando Tatis has added 16 home runs and 42 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Dylan Cease, who is 3-9 with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 108.2 innings pitched this season.

Why the Padres will beat the Marlins

• The Marlins have lost each of their last eight home games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Padres have won each of their last 10 games as favorites following a loss.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 12 day games against NL West opponents following a home win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last 11 day games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in four of their last five road day games.
• The Marlins have lost the first inning in each of their last three games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in nine of their last 11 games as home underdogs against NL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Marlins’ last eight home games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Padres’ last six road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Padres’ last eight games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last four day games against NL West opponents.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in three of the Marlins’ last four games as underdogs against the Padres.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last 30 home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last nine games against the Padres.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Dylan Cease has recorded seven or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances with the Padres as favorites against NL East opponents.
• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances at LoanDepot Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Dylan Cease has recorded a win in each of his last seven Wednesday appearances in day games.
• Jackson Merrill has hit a home run in two of the Padres’ last three games as road favorites against the Marlins.
• Martin Maldonado has recorded a Double in four of his last five road appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Marlins vs Padres Prediction 

Miami was able to snap their two game slide with a win on Tuesday night and they will look for another series win here. The Marlins are 23-29 at home this season, while the Padres are 24-28 on the road. San Diego continues to have a great pitching staff, but their offense is ranked just 25th in runs scored. The Padres are going with Cease, who has allowed 0, 6, 4, and 3 earned runs in his last four outings. The Marlins are starting Alcantara, who has allowed 4, 6, 5, and 7 earned runs in his last four starts. Take San Diego to get a big win here.