Marlins vs Phillies Prediction 9/5/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Marlins vs Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Friday, September 5th at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 65-75 this season after they lost all three against Washington by scores of 0-2, 2-5, and 5-10. In their game three loss, Miami cut the deficit from 7-0 to 8-5, but couldn’t get any closer in the loss. The Marlins recorded 10 hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Hernandez and Wiemer, who both had two RBIs in the loss. Miami started Perez, who allowed eight hits and seven earned runs over 4.0 innings for the loss, while Arias allowed two earned runs in relief. 

Prior to that seres, the Marlins won three out of four against the Mets, but did lose two out of three against the Braves before that. Miami has lost four of their last six games and they are currently third in the NL East standings. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.70 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and a .249 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 606 runs with a .250 batting average and a .314 on base percentage this season. Kyle Stowers (IL) has led Miami with 25 home runs and 73 RBIs, while Agustin Ramirez has added 19 home runs and 60 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Valente Bellozo, who is 1-3 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 73.2 innings pitched this season. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 81-59 this year after they won two out of three against Milwaukee by scores of 10-8, 3-6, and 2-0. In their game three win, Philadelphia scored once in the seventh and once in the ninth to seal the low scoring victory. The Phillies recorded six hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Stott and Turner, who both had one RBI in the win. Philadelphia started Suarez, who allowed six hits and zero earned runs over 6.0 innings for the win, while Duran picked up the save. 

Prior to that series, the Phillies won three out of four against the Braves, but lost all three against the Mets before that. Philadelphia has won five of their last seven games and they are currently first in the NL East standings. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.83 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 665 runs with a .257 batting average and a .327 on base percentage this season. Kyle Schwarber has led Philadelphia with 49 home runs and 119 RBIs, while Nick Castellanos has added 16 home runs and 61 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Cristopher Sanchez, who is 11-5 with a 2.66 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 169.1 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Phillies will beat the Marlins

• The Phillies have won five of their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have lost five of their last six home games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last three games.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in seven of their last eight Friday road games against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in 15 of their last 17 night games against the Marlins.
• The Marlins have lost the first inning in each of their last three night games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Four of the Marlins’ last five home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Phillies’ last five games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Phillies’ last six games against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Marlins’ last five home games against NL East opponents.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 Friday appearances.
• Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in each of his last three home appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Kyle Stowers has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Max Kepler has hit a home run in four of his last seven road appearances against the Marlins.
• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Bryce Harper has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against the Marlins.

Marlins vs Phillies Prediction 

Miami comes into this matchup after a horrible showing against the lowly Nationals and they will try to snap their losing streak here. The Marlins are 31-37 at home this year, while the Phillies are 36-36 on the road. Philadelphia just took two out of three against the Brewers and they are starting Sanchez, who has allowed 1, 6, 2, 3, and 1 earned run in his last five starts. Miami is starting Bellozo, who has allowed one earned run in his last 7.1 innings, but won’t pitch more than a few innings here. We aren’t getting much value with the Phillies in this spot, so I will look at them to win by at least three runs here.