Mets vs Marlins Prediction 8/29/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Marlins prediction for this MLB game on Friday, August 29th at Citi Field in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 72-62 this year after they lost game one by a score of 7-4 on Thursday night. New York tied the game at four in the fifth inning, but failed to score in the final four innings for the loss. The Mets recorded seven hits and they committed three errors in the game, while they were led by Alonso and Nimmo, who both had two RBIs in the loss. New York started Holmes, who allowed five hits and two earned runs over 5.0 innings, while Soto picked up the loss in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Mets won all three against the Phillies and two out of three against the Braves. New York has won five of their last seven games and they are currently second in the NL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 3.78 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and a .240 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 622 runs with a .248 batting average and a .327 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with 30 home runs and 108 RBIs, while Juan Soto has added 32 home runs and 79 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Jonah Tong, who is making his first appearance of the year. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 63-71 this season after they won game one in this series by a score of 7-4 on Thursday night. Miami blew a 4-2 lead in the fifth, but scored three times in the seventh to get the victory. The Marlins recorded nine hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Lopez, who went 2-5 with two RBIs in the win. Miami started Mazur, who allowed four hits and two earned runs over 4.0 innings, while Gibson got the win and Faucher picked up the save. 

Prior to this series, the Marlins lost two out of three against the Braves and two out of three against the Blue Jays. Miami has won three of their last five games and they are currently third in the NL East standings. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.57 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .248 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 574 runs with a .249 batting average and a .313 on base percentage this season. Kyle Stowers has led Miami with 25 home runs and 73 RBIs, while Agustin Ramirez has added 18 home runs and 58 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Eury Perez, who is 6-3 with a 3.44 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP over 70.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Mets will beat the Marlins

• The Mets have won each of their last 11 home games against the Marlins following a loss.
• The Marlins have lost each of their last 10 games at Citi Field following a win.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven night games against NL East opponents following a road win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last five home games against the Marlins following a loss.
• The Marlins have lost the first inning in three of their last four road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in 12 of their last 15 games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven games.

Why the Marlins will beat the Mets

• The Mets have lost eight of their last nine games as home favorites after playing the previous day.
• The underdogs have won seven of the Mets’ last eight games at Citi Field.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as home favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in 14 of their last 16 road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games as road underdogs against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Mets’ last six night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Marlins’ last six games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Marlins’ last six games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the last five night games between the Marlins and Mets.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Pete Alonso has hit a home run in each of the Mets’ last two night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Pete Alonso has recorded at least one Double in four of the Mets’ last five games against the Marlins.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances against the Marlins.
• Francisco Lindor ranks T7th in the league in Hits (145) this season.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in three of his last four Friday appearances with the Marlins as underdogs.
• Kyle Stowers has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 Friday appearances.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (119).
• The Mets rank 4th in the league for walks this season (469).
• The Marlins rank 4th in the league for triples this season (25).
• The Marlins rank 5th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1046).

Mets vs Marlins Prediction 

New York comes into this matchup trying to bounce back from their loss in game one on Thursday, as they try to stay close to the Phillies in the NL East. The Mets are 44-25 at home this year, while the Marlins 32-34 on the road. Miami has been very competitive this year and they are starting Perez, who has allowed 2, 1, 4, and 5 earned runs in his last four outings. The Mets are going with Tong, who is being called up from the minors and is a very promising young arm. New York’s offense is doing a very solid job at the plate right now, while Miami’s lineup will not be easy for Tong. Take the over here.