Mets vs Padres Prediction 6/5/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Padres Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, June 5^th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 32-29 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL West. They have a 16-16 home record and are coming off a 4-6 road defeat against the Phillies. They will face the Reds and the Orioles next.

The Padres have a .216 batting average this season, .291 OBP and .360 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.93 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the team’s best hitter with a .270 batting average. Manny Machado leads the team in RBI with 32, adding a team-high 11 home runs.

Michael King (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has a 4-4 record, 3.18 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have a 27-35 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL East. They have a 12-20 road record and are coming off a 7-1 road win against the Mariners. They will face the Cardinals and the Braves next.

The Mets have a .228 batting average this season, .293 OBP and .359 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 3.80 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Juan Soto is the team’s best hitter with a .293 batting average, also adding a team-high 13 home runs. Bo Bichette leads the team in RBI with 31.

Christian Scott (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 1-0 record, 2.97 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.

New York Mets @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: June 5, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Michael King      Record this season: 4-4      ERA: 3.18
• Home Record: 2-2
• Last 5 against Mets: 0-2

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last 11 games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Padres have won each of their last six night games against the Mets following a road loss.
• The Padres have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 night games against the Mets following a loss.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six road games against National League opponents.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six road night games.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games as underdogs against National League opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Christian Scott      Record this season: 1-0      ERA: 2.97
• Road Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Padres: –

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Padres have lost each of their last eight games after playing the previous day.
• The Mets have won four of their last five games as underdogs against NL West opponents following a win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as underdogs against NL West opponents following a win.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in four of their last five games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Thirteen of the Padres’ last 14 home games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Mets’ last eight games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last six night games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last five games.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres’ last nine home games against NL East opponents.
• Luis Campusano has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with the Padres as favorites against NL opponents.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks T9th in the league in Steals (14) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Juan Soto has hit a home run in each of his last three appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in 18 of his last 19 appearances after not playing the previous day.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (235).
• The Padres rank 30th in the league for hits this season (428).
• The Mets rank 30th in the league for doubles this season (78).
• The Mets rank 30th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.359).

Mets vs Padres Prediction

The Padres are 5-2 in their last 7 meetings against the Mets and have won their last four meetings in San Diego.

In this Mets vs Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -130 home favorites. I like the value with the Mets as road dogs in this one. King has been struggling for the Padres, having given up 9 runs in his last two starts, while Scott has given up two runs or less in six of his seven starts this season. Both bullpens are fairly equal, while the Padres are dead last in batting against righties in the last 10 days. Take the Mets for plus money.