Mets vs Padres Prediction 7/28/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Padres Prediction for this MLB game on Monday, July 28^th at the Petco Park in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 57-49 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL West. They have a 31-18 home record, and are 43-60 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 9-2 road victory over the Cardinals, and have back-to-back wins. Under is 5-2 in their last 7 games and are playing the Cardinals and the Diamondbacks next.

The Padres have a .249 batting average this season, .316 OBP and .378 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.58 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.  Manny Machado leads the Padres with 122 hits, adding team-high .300 batting average and a team-high 66 RBI. He also adds a team-high 19 home runs.

Dylan Cease (R) will take the mound for the Padres, and he has a 3-10 record, 4.59 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have a 62-44 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the NL East. The Mets have a 25-28 road record and are 46-55 in over/under. They are coming off a 5-3 road victory over the Giants, and have seven consecutive wins. Under is 4-2-2 in their last 8 games and are playing the Giants and the Guardians next.

The Mets have a .243 batting average this season, .322 OBP and .414 slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 3.52 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  Pete Alonso leads the Mets with 105 hits, adding a team-high 81 RBI and leads the team in batting average with .266. Juan Soto adds team-high 25 home runs.

Frankie Montas (R) will take the mound for the Mets, and he has a 3-1 record, 4.62 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won 13 of their last 16 home games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have lost four of their last five games at Petco Park following a road win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in 15 of their last 19 night games against the Padres following a win.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven road games against National League opponents.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in eight of their last nine home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Padres have lost eight of their last nine games as favorites against National League opponents following a win.
• The Mets have won each of their last seven games.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last 15 games against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 12 games as favorites following a win.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight Monday night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Padres’ last eight night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Mets’ last 10 night games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Padres’ last nine night games against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Mets’ last eight night games at Petco Park.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (89).
• The Padres rank 3rd in the league for strikeouts against this season (745).
• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (92).
• The Mets rank 3rd in the league for ERA this season (3.52).

Mets vs Padres Prediction

The Mets are 5-2 in their last 7 overall meetings against the Padres, but the Padres are 4-2 in their last 6 meetings in San Diego. Under is 5-3-1 in their last 9 meetings.

In this Mets vs Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -130 home favorites. The Mets have a better overall record, but they have been below average on the road, while the Padres are one of the best home teams in the league. I don’t trust either pitcher in this matchup, but Montas for the Mets has been terrible on the road with a 7.00 ERA, while Cease has a 3.48 home ERA for the Padres. The Padres also have the best bullpen in the league, and that will be enough to give them the home victory in this game.