Mets vs Phillies Prediction 4/21/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Monday, April 21, at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies (13-9, 4-5 Away) lost the series to the Braves and Cardinals, managed to split with the Giants, and then beat the Marlins in two of three games. The Phillies opened that series with two wins but fell short in overtime in Game 3. Bryce Harper led the offense with two RBI, while Jeus Luzardo pitched for 7.0 innings in a no-decision, allowing two runs (one earned) on eight hits with seven strikeouts and no walks. Matt Strahm took the loss.

This season, the Phillies average 4.68 runs per game (7th in the MLB) on a .253/.342/.394 slash line. Regarding pitching, the Phillies’ staff has a 4.29 ERA (22nd) and 1.31 WHIP (20th). Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with a .269 batting average, seven home runs, and 16 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Phillies is Aaron Nola, who is 0-4 in four starts this season, with a 6.65 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in 21.2 innings.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets (15-7, 9-1 Home) returned home from two road series against the Athletics and Twins with a win and a loss, respectively. Back in New York, the Mets swept the Cardinals in a four-game series. Juan Soto led the team in the most recent 7-4 victory with three RBI, while Clay Holmes pitched for 6.0 innings in a no-decision, allowing one run on four hits with six strikeouts and two walks. Jose Butto was credited with the win.

This year, the Mets average 4.14 runs per game (20th in the MLB) on a .230/.305/.394 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Mets’ staff has a 2.35 ERA (1st) and 1.15 WHIP (6th). Pete Alonso leads the Mets with a .346 batting average, six home runs, and 24 RBI this season.

Tylor Megill will take the mound for the Mets on Monday. The 29-year-old right-hander has a 2-2 record in four starts this year with a 1.40 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 19.1 innings.

Why the Mets will beat the Phillies

• The home team has won each of the Mets’ last six games.
• The Phillies have lost nine of their last 10 games at Citi Field against teams that held a winning record.
• The Mets have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games against the Phillies.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games at Citi Field against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in 13 of their last 17 night games at Citi Field against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Phillies’ last seven games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Mets’ last nine night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 12 of the Mets’ last 13 Monday games against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Phillies’ last six games as underdogs.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (9).
• The Mets rank 1st in the league for runs allowed this season (61).
• The Phillies rank 3rd in the league for on-base percentage this season (.342).
• The Phillies are one of only five teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.

Mets vs Phillies Prediction

The Mets won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including five of the last six. Aaron Nola is not having the best of seasons so far; he is still without a win and struggled in his last start against the Giants. Nola allowed a .270 BA in 274 at-bats against the Mets. Tylor Megill, on the other hand, is having the best season of his career, and he allowed a .198 BA in 86 at-bats against the Phillies. The Mets have a 9-1 record at home, and I am backing them to get another win on Monday.