NY Yankees (48-39) vs. NY Mets (50-38)
July 4, 2025 3:10 pm EDT
The Line: NY Mets -115 / NY Yankees -105; Over/Under: 9
(Get latest betting odds)
The New York Yankees and the New York Mets meet Friday in MLB action from Citi Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Mets vs Yankees Prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The New York Yankees will send out Marcus Stroman for the start here, and Stroman is 1-1 with an 8.16 ERA and 8 strikeouts this season. In his career, Stroman is 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA and 11 strikeouts against the Mets. The New York Mets did not have a starting pitcher announced at the time that this article was posted.
New York Yankees Recap
The New York Yankees come into this game looking to rebound from their 8-5 loss at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday to drop to 48-39 on the year. After this series, the New York Yankees will head home for a series against the Seattle Mariners.
Yankees Looking To Bounce Back From Big Loss Against Toronto
Aaron Judge leads the Yankees with 116 hits, including 31 home runs, 70 RBIs, 21 doubles, and a .364 batting average, along with 6 stolen bases. Anthony Volpe also had 21 doubles with 9 stolen bases, 9 home runs, and 46 RBIs, while Jasson Dominguez has added 14 doubles of his own. Paul Goldschmidt has 87 hits with 18 doubles and a .286 batting average, while Volpe also has 85 strikeouts so far this season. Ben Rice also has 58 hits with 13 doubles, 14 home runs, and 30 RBIs, while Cody Bellinger has 12 homers with 44 RBIs, and Austin Wells has 11 home runs and 45 RBIs, with Bellinger logging 15 doubles and Wells chipping in 14 doubles. Trent Grisham also has 16 home runs and 33 RBIs so far this season.
Why the New York Yankees will win
- The Mets have lost each of their last five games as favorites against AL East opponents.
- The underdogs have won each of the Yankees’ last four games.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine day games against American League opponents following a home win.
- The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Yankees’ last nine games at Citi Field.
New York Yankees Player Prop Facts
- Marcus Stroman has recorded four or more strikeouts in 15 of his last 16 appearances in day games against NL teams that held a winning record.
- Anthony Volpe has recorded at least one Double in each of the Yankees’ last three games as underdogs against the Mets.
- Marcus Stroman has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances with his team as a road underdog against the Mets.
New York Mets Recap
The New York Mets come into this game looking to build on their 3-2 win over the Milwaukee Brewers last time out to sit at 50-38 on the year. After this series, the Mets will head on the road for a series against the Baltimore Orioles.
Mets Win Back-To-Back Games
Pete Alonso has 95 hits with 25 doubles, 18 home runs, 67 RBIs, and a .287 batting average, while Juan Soto has 80 hits with 14 doubles, 20 home runs, and 48 RBIs on the year. Francisco Lindor has 90 hits with 13 stolen bases along with 16 doubles, 17 home runs, and 46 RBIs, while Mark Vientos has 6 home runs, 21 RBIs, but 57 strikeouts so far this season. Brandon Nimmo has also added 80 hits with 15 doubles and 17 home runs, and 48 RBIs this season. Luis Torrens has also chipped in 9 doubles, and Luisangel Acuna has 11 stolen bases as well this season.
Why the New York Mets will win
- The Yankees have lost each of their last seven road games against NL East opponents following a loss.
- The home team has won seven of the Mets’ last eight games.
- The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven road games against NL East opponents following a loss.
- The home team has covered the run line in each of the Yankees’ last five games.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Brandon Nimmo has hit a home run in each of the Mets’ last two games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one Double in each of the Mets’ last three home games against the Yankees.
- Tyrone Taylor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against the Yankees.
- Juan Soto ranks 4th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.396) this season.
Total Runs Facts
- Eight of the Yankees’ last nine games as underdogs against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Mets’ last five day games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
Mets vs Yankees Prediction
I’m on the Yankees here. I get the case to be made for the Mets here, but I think Stroman is still a decent option for the Yankees and had a nice return to the rotation last time out. The Subway Series is still a hotly contested rivalry, but I just think this game is really important for the Yankees to bounce back after a poor showing against Toronto to start the week. Give me the Yankees.
