Milwaukee Brewers (27-19) vs. Miami Marlins (15-33)
May 20, 2024 6:40 pm EDT
The Line: Miami Marlins +110 / Milwaukee Brewers -130; Over/Under: +8.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article we will formulate a Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers prediction for this MLB game on Monday, May 20th at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in this series.
Marlins are Improving
The Miami Marlins are 15-33 this season and they have won four of their last five games. Miami is coming off of a series win against the Mets, where they won two out of three games and scored 21 runs in the three games. Prior to that series, the Marlins won two out of three against Detroit, lost two out of three against Philadelphia, and were swept by the Dodgers. Miami has won five of their last seven games, but they are still last in the NL East behind the Phillies, Braves, Mets, and Nationals.
The Miami pitching staff has a 5.00 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a .258 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 184 runs with a .231 batting average and a .286 on base percentage. Bryan De La Cruz is batting .260 with nine home runs and 25 RBI’s for the Marlins this season. Miami had pitched three shutouts in a row, but they allowed 12 runs in their last two games and they are 29th in team ERA in the MLB this year.
Brewers Coming Off of a Series Loss
The Milwaukee Brewers are 27-19 this year and they have won three of their last five games. Milwaukee is coming off of a series loss against Houston, where they lost two out of three games and allowed 16 runs. Prior to that series, the Brewers won two out of three against Pittsburgh, won three out of four against St. Louis, and lost two out of three against Kansas City. Milwaukee has won six of their last ten games and they are leading the NL Central over the Cubs.
The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 4.07 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a .247 opponent batting average. The Brewers offense has scored 235 runs with a .258 batting average and a .335 on base percentage. William Contreras is batting .341 with seven home runs and 37 RBI’s for the Brewers this season. Milwaukee is 17th in team ERA and they are third in runs scored, as they have scored at least four runs in 11 of their last 12 games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Ryan Weathers, who is 2-4 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 49.2 innings pitched this year. Weathers has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, and threw 8.0 shutout innings against Detroit in his last start. The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Joe Ross, who is 2-4 with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over 41.0 innings pitched this year. Ross has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, but did allow six earned runs against the Yankees four starts ago.
Why the Miami Marlins will win
The Marlins have won four of their last five games as underdogs.
The Brewers have lost seven of their last eight Monday night games as road favorites against National League opponents.
The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents following a loss.
The Marlins have covered the run line in six of their last seven games.
The Brewers have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as favorites against NL East opponents.
The Brewers have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five Monday games as road favorites.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Marlins’ last seven home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
Four of the Brewers’ last five road games have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last four night games.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Brewers’ last three night games.
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Miami comes into this game with one of the worst records in the National League, but they have played better over the last week. The Marlins are just 8-18 at home, while Milwaukee is 15-10 on the road. The Brewers are leading the NL Central and their offense has been very good for most of this season. Both of these starting pitchers have been solid in recent starts, but I am going to give a small edge to Ryan Weathers, as he has been better at limiting base runners. My Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers prediction is for Miami to win.
