Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 9-21-24 MLB Picks

The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Milwaukee Brewers meet Saturday in MLB action from American Family Field. Here’s a Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks prediction. This will be the third installment in a four-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Brewers vs Diamondbacks pick.

Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

This week Arizona played the Colorado Rockies. The Diamondbacks lost the first two installments of that set before a 9-4 Wednesday win. After a 5-1 win over the Brewers in the opener, on Friday Arizona posted a 7-4 victory. Zac Gallen gave up four earned in 5.0 innings as a starter.

As starter for Saturday Arizona is going with Merrill Kelly. So far Kelly is 4-0 with a 4.00 ERA in 11 starts. In 138 career starts Kelly is 52-43 with a 3.82 ERA.

Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

Over on the Brewers’ side, they played the Philadelphia Phillies in their last set. Milwaukee managed to win two of those three games. On Friday the Brewers came back from a 4-0 deficit but fell short in the loss. Starter Colin Rea lasted 4.0 innings with three earned.

It’ll be Aaron Civale in the start for the Brewers on Saturday. So far this season Civale is 7-8 with a 4.48 ERA in 29 starts. Civale is 38-34 with a 4.05 ERA in 115 career starts.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Brewers’ last seven games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Diamondbacks’ last eight games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last three games as underdogs.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• William Contreras has hit a home run in three of the Brewers’ last four home games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• Aaron Civale has recorded a win in four of his last five home appearances.
• Willy Adames has recorded at least one Single in each of the Brewers’ last seven games as home favorites against the Diamondbacks.
• Jackson Chourio has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Brewers’ last three games as favorites.
• Aaron Civale has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four home appearances against NL opponents.
• Willy Adames has recorded at least one hit in each of the Brewers’ last 10 games as favorites against the Diamondbacks.
• Christian Yelich has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last three appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Christian Yelich has scored at least one run in each of his last four home appearances against NL West opponents.
• Brice Turang ranks 3rd in the league in Steals (46) this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Eugenio Suarez has hit a home run in each of the Diamondbacks’ last two games as underdogs.
• Merrill Kelly has recorded a win in four of his last five road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Ketel Marte has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Diamondbacks’ last seven road games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has scored at least one run in each of his last seven appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Gabriel Moreno has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 10 appearances in night games.
• Merrill Kelly has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last eight appearances with the Diamondbacks as road underdogs.
• Gabriel Moreno has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances in night games.
• Gabriel Moreno has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 12 appearances in night games.
• Pavin Smith has recorded at least one Double in three of the Diamondbacks’ last four games against NL opponents.
• Ketel Marte ranks 7th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.554) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Milwaukee Brewers rank 2nd in the league for walks this season (572).
• The Milwaukee Brewers rank 3rd in the league for steals this season (199).
• The Arizona Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for runs scored this season (847).
• The Arizona Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for RBI’s this season (807).

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

I’ll lean toward the Brewers here. I could probably go either way though. Civale is 2-0 in his last two starts, posting three earned runs total over 10.1 innings. As for Kelly, he’s given up six earned runs over his last three starts in 17.0 innings but hasn’t had a decision in that time.

On Friday the Brewers notched 12 team hits but couldn’t score outside of the fifth inning. There were a couple of rough pitching outings in the mix; I like Milwaukee to recover on Saturday.