Twins vs Diamondbacks Prediction 9/12/25 MLB Picks Today

The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Minnesota Twins meet Friday in MLB action from Target Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Twins vs Diamondbacks Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Arizona Diamondbacks will send out Brandon Pfaadt for the start here and Pfaadt is 13-8 with a 5.18 ERA and 129 strikeouts this season. This will be Pfaadt’s second career start against the Twins. Pablo Lopez will get the nod for the Twins here and is 5-4 with a 2.84 ERA and 65 strikeouts this season. In his career, Lopez is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 22 strikeouts against Arizona.

Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks come into this game looking to add on to their 5-3 win over the San Francisco Giants last time out to sit at 73-74 on the year. After this series, the Diamondbacks will head home for a rematch series against the San Francisco Giants.

Diamondbacks Snap Three-Game Losing Streak

Corbin Carroll has 131 hits with 30 home runs, 74 RBIs, 16 triples and 29 doubles this season. Carroll also has a team-high 26 stolen bases and Geraldo Perdomo has 24 stolen bases as well as 17 home runs and 91 RBIs with a team-high 151 hits this season. Ketel Marte’s added 25 home runs and 64 RBIs as well on the year and Lourdes Gurriel has 124 hits with 24 doubles, 19 home runs and 80 RBIs.

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Twins have lost each of their last six games as favorites.
• The Diamondbacks have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Twins’ last 10 games.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven home games against teams that held a losing record.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit a home run in each of the Diamondbacks’ last two games as road underdogs against the Twins.
• Gabriel Moreno has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Corbin Carroll ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.547) this season.

Minnesota Twins Recap

The Minnesota Twins come into this game looking to rebound from their 4-3 loss at the hands of the Los Angeles Angels last time out to sit at 64-82 this season. After this series, the Twins will take on the New York Yankees in a series at home.

Twins Drop 8 Of Last 10

Byron Buxton has 116 hits along with 18 doubles, a team-high 30 home runs and 74 RBIs with 22 stolen bases and 7 triples while Trevor Larnach’s chipped in 117 hits with 20 doubles, 16 home runs and 57 RBIs as well this season. Brooks Lee has contributed 104 hits with 14 doubles, 14 home runs and 57 RBIs and Matt Wallner has 21 homers and 39 RBIs as well. 

Why the Minnesota Twins will win

• The Twins have won each of their last eight home games against the Diamondbacks.
• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last four road games against AL Central opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games against AL Central opponents.
• The Twins have covered the run line in each of their last four games against NL West opponents following a loss.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Trevor Larnach has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances.
• Ryan Jeffers has hit at least one home run in three of his last four appearances with the Twins as favorites against the Diamondbacks.
• Ryan Jeffers has recorded a Double in each of the Twins’ last three night games against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
• Byron Buxton ranks 4th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.568) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Twins’ last eight home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Diamondbacks’ last four games as underdogs against the Twins have gone OVER the total runs line.

Twins vs Diamondbacks Prediction

I’m backing the Twins in this one. I get the case to be made for Arizona in this game, as the Twins are not playing the best baseball right now. Arizona still has a chance at making a late run for a shot at a playoff spot. However, the Diamondbacks sending out Brandon Pfaadt for a road start is far more detrimental to their chances than helping them, especially with his form in a lot of his recent road starts. I think Pablo Lopez is still the better option here, and in the end, I think the Twins get a win in this one. Give me Minnesota here.