Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 5-4-24 Picks

The Boston Red Sox and the Minnesota Twins meet Saturday in MLB action from Target Field. Here’s a Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox prediction. This will be the second installment in a three-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game.

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Sox took on the San Francisco Giants in their early-week series. Boston was able to win the first two games of that set 4-0 and 6-2 before falling 3-1 in the finale. On Friday versus the Twins, the Red Sox had just four team hits in a 5-2 loss. Starter Tanner Houck lasted 6.0 innings with four earned on six hits and two walks. Rafael Devers had both RBI and two hits.

In their starting pitcher role for Saturday’s game, the Red Sox are going with Brannan Bernardino. This year Bernardino is 0-1 with a 0.73 ERA in 10 games (one start). Bernardino is 2-3 with a 2.76 ERA in 67 career games (seven starts).

Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

Over on the Twins’ side, they did well against the Chicago White Sox this week. Minnesota won those three games 3-2, 6-5 and 10-5 for a sweep. On Friday the Twins scored four runs in the seventh inning alone. Chris Paddack went 6.0 clean frames in the starting effort with two hits, one walk and six Ks.

It’ll be Pablo Lopez in the starting pitcher role for the Twins on Saturday. Across his six starts this year Lopez is 2-2 with a 4.83 ERA and 37 Ks in 31.2 innings. Lopez has a career record of 41-41 with a 3.90 ERA in 132 total starts.

Red Sox vs Twins Injury Notes

Red Sox SP Nick Pivetta (elbow) gave up four runs on three hits and four walks alongside five strikeouts over three-plus frames with Triple-A Worcester in a rehab start on Thursday.

The Twins placed CF Byron Buxton (right knee inflammation) on the 10-day Injured List on Friday.

Why the Minnesota Twins will win

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Pablo Lopez Record this season: 2-2 ERA: 4.83
• The Twins have won each of their last 11 games.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last five day games against AL Central opponents.
• The Twins have covered the run line each of their last four home games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as road underdogs against AL Central opponents.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games at Target Field.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Brennan Bernardino Record this season: 0-1 ERA: 0.73
• The Red Sox have won each of their last five day games following a loss.
• The Twins have lost five of their last six day games against the Red Sox following a win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last six road games against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight home games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in each of their last three Saturday games as underdogs.
• The Twins have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last 12 games as home favorites against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last four Saturday games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last four games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Twins’ last four games as favorites against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last three games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Twins’ last three home games.

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

I’ll probably stay with the Twins. Lopez needs to have a good start, though. Over his last pair he’s been a little sketchy. In those two, Lopez has seven earned in 9.0 innings on eight hits and three walks total. Prior to that however, Lopez managed just one earned on two hits and no walks in 6.0 innings versus the Orioles (a no-decision).

On Friday the Twins took a while to really get going, but the big seventh inning sealed the victory. Edouard Julien (two walks) and Ryan Jeffers each had two RBI, and Will Castro added two hits with two runs. I like Minnesota to keep it going at the plate if Lopez can keep things quiet on defense.