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MLB Prop Bets: New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians – October 16, 2022

MLB Prop Bets: New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians - October 16, 2022
2022-10-16 19:07:00 EDT

The New York Yankees face the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field in Game 4 of the MLB League Division Round on Sunday at 7:07pm (ET). Let’s take a look at the MLB Prop Bets for the matchup. Gerrit Cole is the probable pitcher for the Yankees, while Cal Quantrill is the probable pitcher for the Guardians. The Yankees are favored to win at -165, while the Guardians are at +140. The total runs line is set at 7.0, with OVER at +100 and UNDER at -121.

  • The Yankees have a 78-83-4 O/U record since the beginning of the regular season (meaning 78 games have gone over the total runs line, 83 have gone under and four have resulted in a push). The Guardians have a 80-82-5 O/U record.

Scoring Insights

  • The Yankees averaged 5.0 runs per game during the regular season (2nd in the league). Comparatively, the Guardians averaged 4.3 (T15th). During the postseason, the Yankees are averaging 3.7 per game and the Guardians are averaging 2.8.
  • In the field, the Yankees allowed 3.5 runs per game during the regular season (3rd in the league), while the Guardians allowed an average of 3.9 runs (8th). More recently, the Yankees are allowing 3.7 per game in these playoffs, while the Guardians are allowing an average of 2.4.

Let’s take a look at how these teams perform in some other key statistical areas.

Batting Insights:

Batting Average

  • Looking at their batting averages during the regular season, the Yankees were at .241 (ranking 15th in the Major leagues), while the Guardians were batting .254 (7th). During the playoffs, the Yankees are at .172 and the Guardians are batting .228.

Home Runs

  • In terms of total home runs during the regular season, the Guardians hit 127 (29th in the Major Leagues). Meanwhile, the Yankees managed 254 (1st). The postseason has thus far seen the Yankees hit 6 home runs, while the Guardians have hit 4.

Runs Batted In

  • Finally, looking at their runs batted in, the Yankees recorded 764 RBIs to rank 2nd in the MLB during the regular season. Comparatively, the Guardians recorded 662 RBIs to rank 17th. The Yankees have recorded 11 RBIs in the playoffs, while the Guardians have recorded 14.

Pitching Insights:

Earned Run Average

  • The Guardians had an earned run average of 3.46 during the regular season (6th in the Majors), while The Yankees had an ERA of 3.30 (3rd). In the playoffs, the Yankees have an ERA of 3.58, while the Guardians have an ERA of 1.94.

Strikeouts

  • Turning our attention to total strikeouts, the Yankees recorded 1459 in the regular season season, ranking 6th in the MLB. Meanwhile, the Guardians ranked T13th for total strikeouts, recording 1390. The Yankees have recorded 27 strikeouts during the postseason and the Guardians have managed 60.

Opponent Batting Average

  • Opponents batted an average of .230 against the Guardians in the regular season (6th in the Major Leagues). Comparatively, the Yankees’ opponents were at .219 (3rd). Throughout these playoffs, the Yankees’ opponents are batting an average of .265 and the Guardians’ opponents are batting an average of .146.

First Innings Moneyline

  • Here are their first innings moneyline records in 2022 (including playoffs).
  • Total Home Road Favorite Underdog Neutral Last 10
    Yankees 49-32-84 27-17-39 22-15-45 45-27-75 4-5-9 0-0-0 2-4-4
    Guardians 38-28-101 21-16-47 17-12-54 21-10-54 17-18-47 0-0-0 3-1-6

Lead After Three Innings

  • Here are their records after the first three innings in 2022 (including playoffs).
  • Total Home Road Favorite Underdog Neutral Last 10
    Yankees 68-50-47 36-24-23 32-26-24 64-42-41 4-8-6 0-0-0 2-2-6
    Guardians 66-69-32 31-38-15 35-31-17 42-28-15 24-41-17 0-0-0 2-2-6

NRFI/YRFI

The NRFI market is paying -141 and the YRFI is paying +110.

  • The NRFI is 81-84 in Yankees games since the beginning of the regular season. The Guardians have a 95-72 NRFI record. Drilling down further, the NRFI is 1-2 in Yankees playoff games this season and 3-2 in Guardians playoff games this season.

Last Time They Met

The Guardians recorded a 6-5 victory over the Yankees at Progressive Field yesterday. Oswaldo Cabrera was unstoppable in that matchup, hitting a home run, a double and recording 2 RBIs.


Robert Steele

I'm not a fan of being called a "quants" (quantitative analyst) or "math wizard" but it's the truth. I'm a numbers guy. I love to crunch the data, make sense of it, and turn it into a winning bet.

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