Nationals vs Cardinals Prediction 5/9/25 MLB Picks Today

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Washington Nationals meet Friday in MLB action from Nationals Park. This will be the first installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Nationals vs Cardinals prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Nationals vs Cardinals pick.

St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The Cardinals opened up their season with a sweep over the Minnesota Twins, then took losses versus the Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, and Pittsburgh Pirates in the next three series. Set wins over the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros came next before a sweep by the Mets and a series loss to the Braves. The Cards would then beat Milwaukee in a series and tie Cincinnati. After winning two of three versus the Mets last weekend, St. Louis beat the Pirates 6-3 Monday and 2-1 Tuesday. In the game two victory, the Cardinals’ Alec Burleson contributed both RBIs on a 1-for-3 day. Matthew Liberatore logged 7.0 innings with one earned run on three hits and three walks in the starting role.

In the Wednesday finale, the Cardinals kept it rolling with a nice 5-0 shutout victory. St. Louis’ Masyn Winn posted two hits with two RBI, while Jordan Walker had two RBI of his own. Lars Nootbaar had three hits with a run and an RBI. Starter Sonny Gray was great on 7.0 innings, two hits, one earned, and eight strikeouts.

As a starter for the Friday game, St. Louis is sending out Erick Fedde. This year, over his seven starts, Fedde is 2-3 with a 4.78 ERA in 37.2 innings total. Fedde is 32-45 with a 4.81 ERA in 140 games (126 starts) total.

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

Over on the Nationals’ side, they opened up the 2025 season by losing in a series to the Philadelphia Phillies and facing a sweep courtesy of the Toronto Blue Jays. Washington would take victories in two of three over the Diamondbacks and Dodgers in the ensuing pair of series, then fall in the next pair versus the Miami Marlins and the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Nationals took out the Rockies and Orioles in the next two sets, then split with the Mets ahead of defeats in two of three against the Phillies. Washington split their first two weekend games versus the Reds, then won on Sunday to take another series. The Nats split their Tuesday doubleheader with the Guardians as well.

In the Wednesday finale versus Cleveland, Washington coughed up all eight runs in the sixth inning along the way to an 8-6 defeat. Starting pitcher Michael Soroka lasted 5.0 frames with four earned runs on five hits and two walks.

As the starting pitcher for Friday, the Nationals will roll out Mitchell Parker. So far this year, Parker is 3-2 with a 3.48 ERA in seven starts across 41.1 innings of work. Parker is 10-12 with a 4.12 ERA in 36 starts over his MLB career.

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Nationals have won nine of their last 10 night games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Cardinals have lost seven of their last eight road games following a win.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last 10 night games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 13 night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight night games at Nationals Park against National League opponents.
• The Nationals have led after 3 innings in eight of their last nine home night games.

Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win

• The Cardinals have won each of their last five games.
• The Nationals have lost each of their last three home games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cardinals have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven night games against the Cardinals at Nationals Park following a loss.
• The Nationals have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against National League opponents.
• The Cardinals have won the first inning in four of their last five road games against National League opponents.
• The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five night games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cardinals’ last five night games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Nationals’ last five home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the last 11 night games between the Cardinals and Nationals.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Cardinals’ last nine night games against NL East opponents.

Nationals vs Cardinals Prediction

I’ll lean toward St. Louis here, but it’s going to depend on how Fedde looks in the starting role. Fedde has one rough outing in his last trio: 5.2 innings with seven earned on 10 hits and two walks in a defeat versus Milwaukee. In the other pair, however, he’s looking much better. Fedde is 1-0 in those two with 11.0 innings combined for five earned runs on 11 hits and eight walks. Another quality start on Friday would go a long way toward buoying St. Louis’ chances. As for Parker, he’s struggled in his last two starts, giving up 11 earned runs on 11 hits and 11 walks in 9.0 innings, going 0-1 in that pair. Parker posted a win over Baltimore on April 22, though, notching 8.0 clean frames with one hit and two walks.

The Cardinals are hot right now, coming off a sweep of the Pirates and holding a five-game win streak in total. St. Louis has five or more runs in four of those games, so if the bats keep it up, there shouldn’t be too many issues Friday.