Nationals vs Guardians Prediction 5/7/25 MLB Picks Today

The Cleveland Guardians and the Washington Nationals meet Wednesday in MLB action from Nationals Park. This will be the final installment in a three-game series this week. Here’s a Nationals vs Guardians prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Nationals vs Guardians pick.

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Guardians opened up the 2025 season by winning a series over the Kansas City Royals, then managed to sweep the San Diego Padres and dropped a series versus the Los Angeles Angels. After a sweep over the Chicago White Sox and a set victory against the Royals, Cleveland lost a series to Baltimore and took a sweep over the Pirates. The Guardians then beat the Yankees in a series and fell to the Red Sox before wins in three of four over Minnesota. Cleveland split the first two weekend games with the Blue Jays ahead of a 5-4 Sunday win that clinched the set. On Monday, the Guardians had a rainout, so that matchup was pushed back to Tuesday afternoon.

In game one of the Tuesday doubleheader, Cleveland posted 14 team hits (and gave up 10) during a wild 10-9 loss. The Guardians scored six of their runs in the seventh inning alone, and Gabriel Arias had three of the RBIs. In the nightcap, the Guardians scored three times in both the sixth and seventh innings on the way to a 9-1 victory. Carlos Santana had a homer, three RBI, and two runs. Starter Ben Lively went 5.1 innings with one earned run on two hits and two walks.

As a starter for Wednesday, the Guardians are sending out Logan Allen. This year, Allen is 1-2 with a 4.02 ERA in six starts over 31.1 innings. Allen is 16-15 with a 4.57 ERA in 50 career starts at the MLB level.

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

Over on the Nationals’ side, they kicked off their campaign by losing a series to the Philadelphia Phillies and getting swept by the Toronto Blue Jays. Washington would win two of three over the Diamondbacks and Dodgers in the next two series, then lose in the next two sets against the Miami Marlins and the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Nationals then beat the Rockies and Orioles in the next pair of series, then split with the Mets before losses in two of three versus the Phillies. Washington split their first two weekend games versus the Reds, then ended up taking a 4-1 win on Sunday to take the set.

In Tuesday’s opener, Washington scored multiple runs in three different innings on the way to the tight victory. James Wood notched a homer with two RBI, and starter Jake Irvin had 5.1 innings with two earned runs. In game two, the Nats were out-hit 8-4 in the defeat. Brad Lord lasted 6.0 innings with three earned runs on three hits and a walk.

Michael Soroka will start for Washington on Wednesday. Soroka is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA and three strikeouts so far this year.

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Guardians have lost seven of their last eight games as road favorites against National League opponents following a win.
• The Nationals have won each of their last four games as home underdogs following a home loss.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last six games following a home loss.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Nationals have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against American League opponents.
• The Guardians have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Guardians have won seven of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have lost six of their last seven home games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games against American League opponents after playing the previous day.
• The Guardians have led after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Guardians have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven day games against opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the last nine games between the Guardians and Nationals at Nationals Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Guardians’ last eight games as road favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Guardians’ last six day games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the last five day games between the Guardians and Nationals.

Nationals vs Guardians Prediction

I’ll probably stick with Cleveland in this one. Allen does need to have a good start in the bag, though. He had some issues with Boston during a loss on April 27, posting seven earned runs on nine hits and three walks over 4.1 innings. In the other pair of his last three starts, however, Allen has 11.1 innings with three earned runs on 11 hits and three walks combined. He didn’t register a decision in either one of those outings, though.

The Guardians had a tough loss in the opener of the doubleheader on Tuesday, but the good news is that the offense came through in both installments. If Cleveland can keep the bats going Wednesday, they’ll be in a promising spot for a potential victory.