Nationals vs Marlins Prediction 5/9/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for this MLB matchup on Saturday, May 9^th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Miami Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins have a 17-22 record this season and are sitting in the fourth place of the NL East. They have a 12-12 home record and are coming off a 2-3 loss at home against the Nationals. They will face the Twins and the Rays next.

The Marlins have a .246 batting average this season, .325 OBP and .371 Slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.03 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Otto Lopez is the team’s best hitter with a .351 batting average. Liam Hicks leads the team in RBI with 34, also adding a team‑high 9 home runs.

Janson Junk (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, and he has a 2-3 record, 2.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.

Washington Nationals Preview

The Washington Nationals have a 19-20 record this season and are sitting in the second place of the NL East. They have a 13-7 away record and are coming off a 3-2 win on the road against the Marlins. They will face the Reds and the Orioles next.

The Nationals have a .241 batting average this season, .323 OBP and .396 Slugging percentage. Washington’s pitching staff has a 4.73 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. CJ Abrams is the team’s best hitter with a .291 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 34. James Wood adds a team‑high 10 home runs.

Zack Littell (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals, and he has a 1-4 record, 7.24 ERA and 1.61 WHIP.

Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: May 9, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Janson Junk      Record this season: 2-3      ERA: 2.82
• Home Record: 1-2
• Last 5 against Nationals: 1-1

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Nationals have lost five of their last six games against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Marlins have won five of their last six day games at LoanDepot Park following a loss.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in five of their last six day games at LoanDepot Park following a loss.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in three of their last four day games.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven home day games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Zack Littell      Record this season: 1-4      ERA: 7.24
• Road Record: 0-2
• Last 5 against Marlins: 2-0

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Nationals have won each of their last five games as road underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Marlins have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last seven road games after playing the previous day.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games.
• The Nationals have won the first inning in six of their last eight games against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five day games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games against the Marlins.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Marlins’ last four games as favorites against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Nationals’ last four games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Nationals’ last nine games against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of Janson Junk’s last eight home appearances as a starter.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Xavier Edwards has hit a home run in two of the Marlins’ last three games against the Nationals.
• Otto Lopez has recorded two or more hits in five of his last six appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (53) this season.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• CJ Abrams has hit a home run in each of the Nationals’ last two day games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• CJ Abrams has recorded at least one hit in each of the Nationals’ last 14 road games against NL opponents.
• Nasim Nunez ranks 1st in the league in Steals (16) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins rank 1st in the league for steals this season (41).
• The Marlins rank T2nd in the league for triples this season (8).
• The Nationals rank 30th in the league for home runs allowed this season (56).
• The Nationals rank T2nd in the league for steals this season (40).

Nationals vs Marlins Prediction

The Nationals are 6-2 in their last 8 meetings against the Marlins and are 3-2 in their last 5 visits in Miami.

In this Nationals vs Marlins Prediction, the Marlins are coming as -160 home favorites. The Nats won yesterday but they are putting a struggling Zack Littell on the mound today, who has been dumpster fire so far. On the flip side, Janson Junk has been unhittable for the Marlins lately, with just one earned run across his last three starts and the Marlins have a far better bullpen and are better against righties. Take the Marlins on the moneyline to bounce back and get the job done at home.