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NY Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 5-14-24 Picks

Philadelphia Phillies (28-13) vs. NY Mets (19-20)
May 14, 2024 1:10 pm EDT
The Line: NY Mets +125 / Philadelphia Phillies -147; Over/Under: +8
(Get latest betting odds)

The Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets meet Tuesday in MLB action from Citi Field. Here’s a NY Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction. This will be the second installment in a four-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Phillies played the Miami Marlins in their weekend series. Philadelphia did well in the first two games of that set with wins 8-2 and 8-3, then took a 7-6 loss on Sunday. In the Monday opener versus the Mets, the Phillies eked out a 5-4 comeback win in 10 innings. Starter Christopher Sanchez posted 5.2 innings with three earned on seven hits and three walks.

As starter for the Tuesday matchup the Phillies will send out Aaron Nola. This year Nola is 4-2 with a 3.67 ERA and 47 Ks in 49.0 innings over eight starts. Nola is 94-73 with a 3.72 ERA in 243 career games at the MLB level.

New York Mets Betting Preview

Over on the Mets’ side, they took on the Atlanta Braves in their weekend set. New York lost the first pair 4-2 and 4-1 before a 4-3 win to stave off the sweep on Sunday. In the Monday game the Mets blew a 4-2 lead in the top of the ninth. Sean Manaea put up 6.0 innings in the starting role with four hits, one walk, one earned and six Ks.

It’ll be Jose Butto in the starting pitcher role for the Mets on Tuesday. Over his six starts this year Butto is 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 34 Ks in 33.0 innings. Butto is 2-6 with a 3.99 ERA in 16 career games (14 starts).

Phillies vs Mets Injury Notes

Mets SP David Peterson (hip) will make another rehab start with Double-A Binghamton on Tuesday or Wednesday. SP Kodai Senga (shoulder) won’t be facing live hitters until he works through some mechanical issues.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

  • The Phillies have won 12 of their last 13 games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Mets have lost eight of their last nine day games at Citi Field following an extra innings loss.
  • The road team has covered the run line in each of the Mets’ last seven games.
  • The Mets have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 day games at Citi Field after going to extra innings.
  • The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against National League opponents.
  • The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three day games.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

 

  • Brandon Nimmo has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last six games against NL opponents.
  • Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances with the Mets as underdogs against the Phillies.
  • Francisco Lindor has scored a run in five of the Mets’ last six games as underdogs.
  • Harrison Bader has recorded at least one total base in each of his last six appearances in day games.
  • Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one hit in 15 of his last 16 appearances in day games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
  • Pete Alonso has recorded a Double in four of the Mets’ last five games against NL opponents.
  • Harrison Bader has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances in day games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

 

  • Nick Castellanos has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four games as road favorites against NL opponents.
  • Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six appearances in day games.
  • Alec Bohm has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Phillies’ last seven games as road favorites against NL opponents.
  • Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in nine of his last 10 appearances at Citi Field.
  • Bryce Harper has scored a run in each of his last six appearances against the Mets after playing the previous day.
  • Aaron Nola has recorded a win in four of his five previous appearances at Citi Field against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Alec Bohm has recorded at least one Double in six of the Phillies’ last seven games as road favorites against NL opponents.
  • Trea Turner has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances against NL opponents.
  • J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in day games.
  • Alec Bohm ranks 7th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.329) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

 

  • The New York Mets rank 30th in the league for walks allowed this season (179).
  • The New York Mets rank T29th in the league for triples this season (1).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies rank T1st in the league for triples this season (10).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies rank 2nd in the league for runs scored this season (218).

NY Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

I’ll stay with the Phillies. I could go either way here, though. Nola didn’t have a great start his last time up, going 5.2 innings with four earned on nine hits in a loss versus the Blue Jays. Prior to that Nola had five earned in 12.0 innings over two starts. As for Butto, he’s got eight earned runs over his last three starts in a total of 16.2 frames.

On Monday the Phillies got going on offense late in the game and were able to pull off the comeback. Bryson Stott managed a pair of hits, two RBI, two runs and a homer in the victory, and the bullpen held strong after Sanchez exited. I’d like to see the Phillies get off to a better start on Tuesday, though.

Andrew's Free Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -147

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Andrew

Andrew has been writing about college, professional and fantasy sports betting since 2013. Andrew's goal is to break down the complicated numbers and trends into a language that's easily accessible to novice sports bettors and seasoned professionals alike.

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