Orioles vs Blue Jays Prediction 4/12/25 MLB Picks Today

The Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles meet Saturday in MLB action from Oriole Park. This will be the second installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s an Orioles vs Blue Jays prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Orioles vs Blue Jays pick.

Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Jays and Orioles faced off in a four-game set to start the 2025 season, with each team getting a pair of wins for a split. Toronto would go on to sweep the Washington Nationals then get swept by the New York Mets in the next two series. The Blue Jays would recover against the Boston Red Sox this week, winning 6-2, 6-1 and 2-1 in the first three games. In the Thursday finale the Blue Jays took a tough 4-3 loss in 10 innings, giving up two runs in the bottom of the final frame. Starter Chris Bassitt lasted 5.2 innings with one earned run on five hits and a walk, while Tyler Heineman had three hits with one RBI.

On Friday in the opener versus the O’s, we had a postponement due to inclement weather. That game will be made up on July 29 as part of a doubleheader.

As starting pitcher for Saturday’s matchup, Toronto is going with Bowden Francis. This year Francis is 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA over two starts. Francis is 10-6 over his career in the MLB with a 2.90 ERA in 50 games (15 starts).

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

Over on the Orioles’ side, they were able to get wins versus the Blue Jays 12-2 and 9-5 in their opening series. Baltimore would face the Boston Red Sox next, losing two of three games there. The O’s likewise feel in two of three to the Kansas City Royals last weekend. That trend continued to hold this week against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Baltimore won 5-1 in the Monday opener, then dropped the next pair 4-3 and 9-0 for another series loss. In the shutout defeat Wednesday, Baltimore’s Dean Kremer finished with 4.2 innings, six earned, eight hits, one walk and four strikeouts. The O’s were out-hit 14-4 in that one, giving up five runs in the fifth inning alone. Adley Rutschman posted one hit with a walk in the loss.

In the starting pitcher role on Friday the Orioles will go with Tomoyuki Sugano. In the first two starts of his MLB career this season, Sugano has gone 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA. He’s got five strikeouts over 9.1 total innings.

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Orioles have won each of their last seven games against AL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Blue Jays have lost each of their last five road games after going to extra innings.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last 13 games against AL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 11 games against American League opponents following an extra innings loss.
• The Blue Jays have lost the first inning in each of their last four day games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last seven Saturday day games as road underdogs.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven Saturday day games as road underdogs.

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Orioles have lost seven of their last eight games as favorites.
• The Blue Jays have won six of their last seven games as road underdogs against the Orioles following a loss.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as road underdogs following an extra innings loss.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites.
• The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six Saturday day games as favorites.
• The Orioles have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against American League opponents.
• The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight day games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Blue Jays’ last 12 road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the last six games between the Blue Jays and Orioles have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Blue Jays’ last 11 day games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Orioles’ last nine day games.

Orioles vs Blue Jays Prediction

I’ll probably just stick with the Orioles here. That said, coming off their respective series you could certainly make a case for the Jays as well. Baltimore didn’t play very well on either side of the ball in their latest loss to Arizona on Wednesday, with the team notching only four hits and the pitching staff giving up nine earned runs. After Kremer’s six earned, the bullpen surrendered the other three in 3.1 innings on six hits, two walks and four strikeouts. Sugano certainly has his work cut out for him. The good news is that he hasn’t done too badly in his pair of starts so far. Sugano has given up three earned over 9.1 innings total on nine hits and three walks.

It’s going to take a bit of a push—and some improvement on both sides—for the O’s to get one here, but the home environment will help. Considering Friday’s game was called off though, both teams will be fresh coming into this one. It’s a coin-flip proposition overall, but should be a fun series (if it ever gets going).