Orioles vs Royals Prediction 5/4/25 MLB Picks Today

The Kansas City Royals and the Baltimore Orioles meet Sunday in MLB action from Oriole Park. This will be the final installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s an Orioles vs Royals prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Orioles vs Royals pick.

Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

Kansas City kicked off the 2025 season with losses in the first pair of series versus the Cleveland Guardians and the Milwaukee Brewers, then took a set victory against the Baltimore Orioles. Kansas City then got a series win over the Minnesota Twins ahead of a series defeat in the rematch versus Cleveland. The Royals took a sweep over the New York Yankees ahead of a loss in three of four games against the Detroit Tigers. The Royals notched another sweep over the Rockies, then took wins in two of three versus the Astros. Kansas City bagged a sweep versus the Rays this past week as well. On Friday versus Baltimore, KC couldn’t get anything going on four team hits in a 3-0 shutout loss. Starter Michael Wacha gave up all three earned runs on seven hits and a walk in 6.1 innings. Michael Massey had half the team’s hits, and Freddy Fermin had the other pair.

In the Saturday matchup, the Royals posted eight team hits during a 4-0 shutout win. Vinnie Pasquantino, Cavan Biggio, and Kyle Isbel each had solo home runs.  Starting pitcher Kris Bubic logged 5.0 clean frames, four hits, and a walk.

Starter for the Royals on Sunday will be Michael Lorenzen. This year, Lorenzen is 3-3 with a 3.48 ERA in six starts over 33.2 innings. Lorenzen is 50-47 with a 3.97 ERA in 374 games (99 starts) over his career.

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

Over on the Orioles’ side, they took a split in their first series of 2025 versus the Toronto Blue Jays ahead of a set loss versus the Boston Red Sox. Losses in two more series against the Royals and Diamondbacks came next, then a two-game split against the Blue Jays. Baltimore finally got a series win against the Guardians, then lost in two of three against the Nationals and got swept by the Tigers. The Orioles beat the Yankees in two of three games during their early-week set. In the Friday matchup, Baltimore scored all three of their runs in the seventh inning. Ryan O’Hearn came away with two hits, two RBI, and a homer, while starter Dean Kremer put up 7.0 innings, three hits, and a walk.

On Saturday, the Os notched six team hits in the loss, with Gunnar Henderson posting half of them (3-for-4). Tomoyuki Sugano managed 6.0 innings as a starter, giving up two earned runs on four hits and two walks.

It’ll be Kyle Gibson in the starter slot for the Orioles on Sunday. This year, Gibson is 0-1 with a 22.09 ERA off his lone start, lasting just 3.2 innings. Gibson is 112-109 with a 4.55 ERA over his career in 331 games (325 starts).

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Royals have lost each of their last eight Sunday road games against AL East opponents.
• The Orioles have won seven of their last eight home games against the Royals following a home loss.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in six of their last eight home games against the Royals following a home loss.
• The Royals have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against teams that held a losing record.

Why the Kansas City Royals will win

• The Royals have won five of their last six games as road underdogs.
• The Orioles have lost seven of their last eight day games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Royals have covered the run line in each of their last six day games following a road win.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites against American League opponents following a home loss.
• The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight day games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Royals have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games against opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Orioles’ last six games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Royals’ last nine games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Orioles’ last eight games against AL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Royals’ last five day games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Orioles vs Royals Prediction

I’ll probably lean toward the Royals. Lorenzen is doing quite well over his last two starts, notching 6.0 innings in each for a total of 12.0 frames with two earned runs, nine hits, and six walks combined over that time. Lorenzen did have a rough loss versus Detroit on April 17, though, giving up four earned runs in 4.2 innings. As for Gibson, he’s certainly chomping at the proverbial bit to get another chance after his disastrous debut versus the Yankees on April 29. Gibson gave up nine earned runs on 11 hits and two walks over 3.2 innings in that one, but he’s obviously a much better pitcher than that and should right the ship here.

The Royals got three of their four runs via solo homers in the Saturday victory, and Maikel Garcia had three of the team’s eight hits. I’d like to see a little more variety on Sunday, but I can’t complain about the results.