Atlanta Braves (0-1) vs. San Diego Padres (1-0)
March 28, 2025 9:40 pm EDT
The Line: San Diego Padres -125 / Atlanta Braves 105; Over/Under: 7.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article, we will formulate a Padres vs Braves prediction for this MLB game on Friday, March 28th, at PETCO Park in San Diego, California. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
The Atlanta Braves concluded the previous season with a record of 89 wins and 73 losses, securing third place in the NL East, trailing the Philadelphia Phillies by six games. In the Wild Card round, the Braves faced the San Diego Padres but were defeated in both matches. On the opening day this season, the Braves lost 7-4 to the Padres. They had a 4-3 lead until the 7th inning when the hosts scored four runs. Ozzie Albies impressed for the Braves with a homer and three RBI. The Braves will play against the Dodgers and Marlins following this series.
Last season, the Braves averaged 4.35 runs per game (15th in the MLB) on a .243/.309/.415 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, Atlanta’s staff had a 3.49 ERA (tied 1st) and 1.20 WHIP (3rd). Marcell Ozuna led the Braves with a .302 batting average, 39 home runs, and 104 RBI last season.
Reynaldo Lopez will take the mound for the Braves on Friday. The 31-year-old right-hander had an 8-5 record in 2024 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 135.2 innings.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
Last season, the San Diego Padres secured the second position in the NL West with a record of 93 wins and 69 losses, finishing five games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Padres triumphed over the Braves with a score of 2-0 in the Wild Card Round. They initially held a 2-1 advantage against the Dodgers in the Divisional Round; however, the Dodgers rallied to win the series and subsequently claimed the World Series title. San Diego beat Atlanta 7-4 in the opener, mostly thanks to Jackson Merrill, who contributed with four RBI.
Last year, the Padres averaged 4.49 runs per game (8th in the MLB) on a .263/.324/.420 slash line. The Padres’ pitching staff had a 4.13 ERA (6th) and 1.22 WHIP (6th). Manny Machado was the best offensive player for the Padres, with a .275 batting average, 29 home runs, and 105 RBI last season.
The projected starting pitcher for the Padres is Dylan Cease, who went 14-11 with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over 189.1 innings pitched in 2024.
Why the Braves will beat the Padres
- The Padres have lost three of their last four games as home favorites against National League opponents following a home win.
- The Braves have won seven of their last 10 games as road underdogs following a loss.
- The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last six games as road underdogs following a loss.
- The Padres have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine night games at Petco Park following a home win.
- The Braves have led after 5 innings in 12 of their last 16 games against National League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Padres’ last four home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Four of the Braves’ last five night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last six road games against National League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Padres’ last eight games as favorites against NL East opponents.
Padres vs Braves Prediction
The Padres won eight of the previous ten H2H encounters, including four of the last five. Still, I am going with the Braves here because I like their starter better. Lopez dominated the Padres’ batter in his career, allowing just four RBI and no home runs in 107 at-bats, along with 16 strikeouts and four walks. Cease doesn’t have such good numbers against the Braves as he allowed nine RBI and two homers in 59 at-bats, so I expect him to have some problems early on. Go with the Braves to win and tie the series.
