Marlins vs Pirates Prediction 3/28/25 MLB Picks Today

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Miami Marlins meet on Friday in MLB action from LoanDepot Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Marlins vs Pirates Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Pittsburgh Pirates will start Mitch Keller here, and Keller was 11-12 with a 4.25 ERA and 166 strikeouts last season. In his last five starts against Miami, Keller is 1-0 with a 3.58 ERA and 22 strikeouts. Connor Gillispie will get the start for the Marlins here and was 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 8 strikeouts last season. This will be Gillispie’s first career start.

Pittsburgh Pirates Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates will be out to bounce back after ending up with a 5-4 loss at the hands of the Marlins in Thursday’s series & season opener. After this four-game set, the Pirates will continue on the road for an interleague series with Tampa Bay.

Pirates Looking To Get Revenge In Friday’s Rematch

Nick Gonzales launched a two-run home run, and Bryan Reynolds went 1 for 4 with the other two RBIs for Pittsburgh in the loss, and Tommy Pham’s lone base knock ended up as a double. KeBryan Hayes added a base hit as the Pirates managed just four hits as a team, with Pittsburgh combining for 11 strikeouts and a 1 for 9 mark with runners in scoring position. Paul Skenes allowed two runs on three hits with 7 strikeouts over 5.1 innings of work, not factoring in the decision. Colin Holderman blew the save, and David Bednar allowed the walk-off run to take the loss, falling to 0-1 on the year.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Marlins have lost each of their last 10 night games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have won eight of their last nine games against the Marlins.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games at LoanDepot Park following a win.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in six of their last seven night games against NL East opponents following a road loss.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Andrew McCutchen has hit at least one home run in 12 of his last 30 appearances with the Pirates as road favorites against NL opponents.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded a Double in six of the Pirates’ last eight games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one RBI in eight of his last nine appearances with the Pirates as favorites against the Marlins.
• Mitch Keller has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with the Pirates as favorites against NL East opponents.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one Single in each of the Pirates’ last six night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against the Marlins.
• Mitch Keller has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against NL East opponents.
• Jack Suwinski has scored a run in each of his last six appearances with the Pirates as road favorites against NL opponents.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes ranks T1st in the league in Steals (2) this season.

Miami Marlins Recap

The Miami Marlins will try to keep the ball rolling after a 5-4 win over the Pirates in Thursday’s opener. After this four-game set, the Marlins will welcome the New York Mets to town for an early NL East division series.

Marlins Trying To Start The Year 2 For 2

Xavier Edwards, Kyle Stowers, Otto Lopez, and Dane Myers each had a hit and an RBI in the win, while Nick Fortes had a triple and Derek Hill chipped in a double. Graham Pauley and Jonah Bridge each had a base hit as well to cap off the offense for Miami in the winning effort. Miami went 4 for 11 with runners in scoring position in the win. Sandy Alcantara gave up two runs on two hits with 7 strikeouts over 4.2 innings of work, not factoring in the decision. Jesus Tinoco picked up the win in relief to start the year 1-0.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won each of their last five games as underdogs.
• The Pirates have lost three of their last four games as favorites.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games as favorites.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Jonah Bride has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Marlins’ last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Otto Lopez has scored a run in four of the Marlins’ last five games against NL Central opponents.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven appearances.
• Jonah Bride has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last nine games as underdogs.
• Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in four of his last eight home appearances against NL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Eleven of the Marlins’ last 12 night games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Pirates’ last three games have gone OVER the total runs line.

Marlins vs Pirates Prediction

I’m on the Pirates here. I think it was a lot easier to make a case for the Marlins on Thursday, as Sandy Alcantara is an ace-level pitcher that will always give the Marlins a chance whenever he takes the mound. However, Friday is a bit tougher, with Connor Gillispie logging just 8 major league innings to this point. Mitch Keller isn’t my favorite arm in the Pirates’ rotation, but I think he’ll be good enough here. I’m not backing down that I think the Marlins have one of the worst lineups in baseball, but even the worst teams in baseball normally win 50–60 games a year. I think the Pirates get their get back here. Give me the Pirates.