Padres vs Brewers Prediction 9/22/25 MLB Picks Today

The Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres meet Monday in MLB action at Petco Park. Here’s a Padres vs Brewers Prediction. This article will include a Padres vs Brewers Pick.

Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are 95-61 on the year and play the Reds next. The Milwaukee Brewers are batting .261 on the season, have a .334 OBP, and a .408 slugging percentage. The Milwaukee Brewers pitching staff has a 3.62 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Brice Turang leads the Milwaukee Brewers with 161 hits and 77 RBI, while Sal Frelick and William Contreras have combined for 296 hits and 138 RBI.

Freddy Peralta gets the ball for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he is 17-6 with a 2.65 ERA and 195 strikeouts this season. Peralta is 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 26 strikeouts in his career against the San Diego Padres.

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are 85-71 on the year and play the Diamondbacks next. The San Diego Padres are batting .252 on the season, have a .321 OBP, and a .388 slugging percentage. The San Diego Padres pitching staff has a 3.68 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Luis Arraez leads the San Diego Padres with 172 hits and 58 RBI while Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. have combined for 321 hits and 159 RBI.

Nick Pivetta gets the ball for the San Diego Padres, and he is 13-5 with a 2.81 ERA and 185 strikeouts this season. Pivetta is 1-3 with a 9.95 ERA and 19 strikeouts in his career against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: September 22, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Pivetta      Record this season: 13-5      ERA: 2.81
• Home Record: 8-1
• Last 5 against Brewers: 1-3

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Brewers have lost each of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.
• The home team has won 10 of the Brewers’ last 12 games.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six road games.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the Brewers’ last six games.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last four home games.
• The Brewers have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six road games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta      Record this season: 17-6      ERA: 2.65
• Road Record: 8-5
• Last 5 against Padres: 2-1

Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win

• The Brewers have won each of their last six games as underdogs against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have lost four of their last six games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last 11 games as underdogs following a loss.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Monday games as favorites.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in three of their last four games.
• The Brewers have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven Monday games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Brewers have led after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 night games against NL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Brewers’ last eight games as underdogs against the Padres have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Padres’ last five games as favorites against the Brewers have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last six games between the Brewers and Padres.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 13 of the Brewers’ last 15 games as road underdogs.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Jackson Merrill has hit a home run in three of the Padres’ last four home games.
• Nick Pivetta has recorded seven or more strikeouts in six of his last seven home appearances against NL opponents.
• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances.
• Gavin Sheets has recorded at least one Double in each of the Padres’ last three home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Nick Pivetta has recorded a win in six of his last eight appearances with the Padres as home favorites against NL opponents.
• Luis Arraez ranks T5th in the league in Hits (171) this season.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Sal Frelick has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances.
• Freddy Peralta has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances.
• Brice Turang has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances against NL West opponents.
• Freddy Peralta has recorded a win in each of his last six appearances with the Brewers as underdogs.
• Brice Turang has recorded a Double in four of the Brewers’ last five night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Freddy Peralta ranks T2nd in the league for Wins (17) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.226).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (1147).
• The Brewers rank 2nd in the league for hits this season (1378).
• The Brewers rank 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.261).

Padres vs Brewers Prediction

We’re getting plus money with the team with the best record in baseball. It’s hard to turn down the Brewers in this spot. Peralta also looks like an all-star with his 2.65 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and he’s allowed 21 hits and 7 runs in his last 44 innings. While Pivetta is having a strong season in his own right, he has a .317 allowed batting average and .394 on base percentage in 63 at bats against current Brewers. I’ll take the Brewers with the more favorable price.