Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction 7/9/25 MLB Picks Today

The Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres meet Wednesday in MLB action from Petco Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Arizona Diamondbacks will send out Brandon Pfaadt here and Pfaadt is 8-6 with a 5.42 ERA and 80 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Padres, Pfaadt is 1-2 with a 3.21 ERA and 29 strikeouts. Dylan Cease will get the start for the Padres and is 3-8 with a 4.62 ERA and 121 strikeouts this season. In his career, Cease is 1-1 with a 2.49 ERA and 24 strikeouts against Arizona.

Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks will be looking to bounce back from a 1-0 loss at the hands of the Padres on Tuesday to drop to 45-47 on the year. After this series, the Diamondbacks will head on the road for a series against the Angels.

Diamondbacks Alternate Wins & Losses In 5 Straight

Corbin Carroll has 73 hits with 20 home runs, 44 RBIs, 9 triples and 13 doubles while Josh Naylor has 92 hits with 18 doubles, 10 home runs and 56 RBIs as well this season. Eugenio Suarez has also added 28 home runs and 73 RBIs while Geraldo Perdomo has 59 RBIs. Naylor has also chipped in 10 stolen bases as well up to this point in the year while Suarez has the unfortunate distinction of leading the Diamondbacks with 98 strikeouts so far this season. Carroll also has 10 stolen bases and Perdomo has a team-high 13 stolen bases as well this season.

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Padres have lost each of their last 10 night games following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have won six of their last seven games as road underdogs against the Padres following a loss.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 games as favorites following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as road underdogs against National League opponents.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Pfaadt has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his four previous appearances with the Diamondbacks as underdogs against the Padres.
• Corbin Carroll has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 road appearances against NL West opponents.
• Gabriel Moreno has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with the Diamondbacks as underdogs against NL West opponents.
• Corbin Carroll ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.561) this season.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to add on to their win over the Diamondbacks from Tuesday’s game to sit at 49-42 on the year. After this series, the Padres will welcome the Philadelphia Phillies to town for a series.

Padres Trying To Find Consistency Of Their Own

Manny Machado has 98 hits including a team-high 21 doubles, 14 home runs, 52 RBIs and 8 stolen bases while Fernando Tatis Jr. has 87 hits with a team-high 15 home runs and 39 RBIs along with 19 stolen bases of his own this season. Luis Arraez has added 99 hits with 17 doubles, 4 triples, 4 home runs and 34 RBIs while Jackson Merrill’s added 61 hits with 5 home runs and 29 RBIs as well. Xander Bogaerts also has 18 doubles and 13 stolen bases as well this season. Gavin Sheets also has 14 doubles, 13 home runs and 49 RBIs as well this season.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won seven of their last eight night games against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last six road games against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line each of their last six Wednesday games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Padres have covered the run line in four of their last five games as home favorites against NL West opponents following a win.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Jake Cronenworth has hit a home run in three of his last four Wednesday night appearances against NL West teams that held a losing record.
• Dylan Cease has recorded seven or more strikeouts in five of his six previous home appearances against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres’ last 12 games as home favorites.
• Luis Arraez ranks T8th in the league in Hits (101) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the last eight games between the Diamondbacks and Padres at Petco Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Diamondbacks’ last seven games as underdogs against the Padres have gone OVER the total runs line.

Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction

I’m leaning towards Arizona here. I get the case to be made for San Diego at home, especially after sneaking out a win on Tuesday, but the thing is that there’s only so many games that you can win by scoring one run. That doesn’t eliminate the fact that the Padres’ offense is struggling mightily right now. I think this could be a good get right spot for Pfaadt and I think that the Diamondbacks get it done here. Give me Arizona in this one.