Padres vs Giants Prediction 8/11/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Padres vs Giants Prediction for this MLB game on Monday, August 11^th at the Oracle Park in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

San Francisco Giants Preview

The San Francisco Giants have a 59-59 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the NL West. They have a 29-28 home record and are 54-59 in over/under. They are coming off a 0-8 home defeat the Nationals, and have back-to-back losses. Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games and are playing the Padres and the Rays next.

The Giants have a .233 batting average this season, .311 OBP and .376 Slugging percentage. San Francisco’s pitching staff has a 3.64 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.  Heliot Ramos leads the Giants with 123 hits and is the team’s best hitter, with a .273 batting average. Willy Adames leads the team in RBI with 61, adding a team-high 18 home runs.

Logan Webb (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Giants, and he has a 10-8 record, 3.24 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 66-52 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL West. They have a 28-32 road record, and are 50-65 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 6-2 home victory over the Red Sox, and are 4-1 in their last 5 games. Over is 6-2 in their last 8 games and are playing the Dodgers and the Giants next.

The Padres have a .251 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .380 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.62 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.  Manny Machado leads the Padres with 135 hits and team-high .297 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI, with 72, adding a team-high 20 home runs.

Yu Darvish (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has a 1-3 record, 6.51 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.

Why the San Francisco Giants will win

• The Padres have lost seven of their last eight games against NL West opponents following a win.
• The Giants have won four of their last five night games against NL West opponents following a home loss.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against NL West opponents following a win.
• The Giants have covered the run line in three of their last four games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Giants have led after 3 innings in each of their last four night games against National League opponents.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in four of their last five night games.
• The Giants have led after 5 innings in each of their last four night games against National League opponents.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Giants have lost each of their last 10 home games after playing the previous day.
• The underdogs have won five of the Giants’ last six games at Oracle Park.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last 13 games as underdogs against the Giants.
• The Giants have failed to cover the run line in 22 of their last 23 games as home favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Padres have won the first inning in seven of their last nine night games against the Giants.
• The Giants have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games as road underdogs against NL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Ten of the Padres’ last 11 night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Giants’ last eight night games against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Giants’ last four games as home favorites against NL West opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last four road games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Giants rank 1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (102).
• The Giants rank T29th in the league for steals this season (51).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (880).
• The Padres rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (99).

Padres vs Giants Prediction

The Padres are 7-2 in their last 9 meetings against the Giants, and are 4-2 in their 6 meetings this season, with both teams being tied 2-2 wins in their previous series in San Fran this season. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings.

In this Padres vs Giants Prediction, the Giants are coming as -140 road favorites. Webb has been back on track for the Giants, with back-to-back games with just one earned run, and he has been better at home this season, with a 2.78 home ERA. Darvish on the other hand, has been struggling mightily this season, and has been torched in his three road starts this season, having an abysmal 10.22 road ERA. The Giants are better against right-handed pitching, and I expect them to get the job done at home today. Take the San Francisco Giants on the moneyline.