Miami Marlins (21-32) vs. San Diego Padres (31-22)
May 28, 2025 4:10 pm EDT
The Line: San Diego Padres -166 / Miami Marlins 140; Over/Under: 8.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article, we will formulate a Padres vs Marlins prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, May 28, at PETCO Park in San Diego, California. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
The Miami Marlins (21-32, 8-17 Away) bounced back from a three-game losing run with a pair of victories against the Los Angeles Angels to win the series following a Game 1 loss. The Marlins will lose this series against the Padres, though, after losing the opening two games, 4-3 and 8-6. In the latest one, Max Meyer pitched for 3.1 innings in a no-decision, allowing six runs (four earned) on seven hits with no strikeouts and two walks. Cade Gibson took the loss.
This season, the Marlins average 4.10 runs per game (20th in the MLB) on a .249/.314/.387 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Marlins’ staff has a 5.21 ERA (27th) and 1.44 WHIP (26th). Kyle Stowers leads the Marlins with a .299 batting average, ten home runs, and 32 RBI this season.
Sandy Alcantara will take the mound for the Marlins on Wednesday. The 29-year-old right-hander has a 2-7 record in ten starts this year with an 8.04 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 47.0 innings.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
The San Diego Padres (31-22, 18-8 Home) were on a six-game losing streak after being swept by the Mariners and Blue Jays, but responded with a series win against the Braves. They will also win this series against the Marlins after winning the opening two games. In Tuesday’s 8-6 victory, Luis Arraez led the offense with two RBI, while Stephen Kolek got the win after allowing six runs on six hits with three strikeouts and two walks in 5.1 innings.
This year, the Padres average 4.17 runs per game (17th in the MLB) on a .251/.317/.388 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Padres’ staff has a 3.49 ERA (9th) and 1.19 WHIP (8th). Gavin Sheets leads the Padres with a .268 batting average, ten home runs, and 31 RBI this season.
The projected starting pitcher for the Padres is Kyle Hart, who is 2-2 in five starts this season, with a 6.00 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 21.0 innings.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Marlins’ last five day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Five of the Padres’ last six games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last six games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last five games as underdogs against National League opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Padres rank 4th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.224).
- The Padres are one of only eight teams in the league to rank top 10 in both ERA and hits allowed this season.
- The Marlins rank 26th in the league for walks allowed this season (204).
- The Marlins rank 25th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.262).
Padres vs Marlins Prediction
The Padres won seven of the previous ten H2H encounters, including four of the last five. Three of the past four H2Hs went Over, and I am backing another Over in this one because of the starting pitchers. Sandy Alcantara, who used to be Miami’s ace, is having the worst season of his career. He allowed multiple runs in each of his starts this year, and surrendered 4+ runs in each of his last five starts. Alcantara allowed a .308 BA in 52 at-bats against the Padres. Kyle Hart allowed 12 runs in his last three starts, and I am sure the Marlins will score multiple runs off him on Wednesday. Go with Over.
