Padres vs Rangers Prediction 7/4/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Padres vs Rangers prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 4th at Petco Park in San Diego, California. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are 46-40 this year after they lost two out of three against Philadelphia by scores of 0-4, 6-4, and 1-5. In their game three loss, San Diego led 1-0 early in the game, but they went scoreless over the last five innings for the loss. The Padres recorded six hits in the game, and they were led by Merrill, who went 1-4 with one RBI in the loss. San Diego started Cease, who allowed eight hits and four earned runs over 6.0 innings for the loss, while Matsui allowed one earned run in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Padres lost two out of three against the Reds, but did win two out of three against the Nationals before that. San Diego has lost four of their last six games, and they are currently second in the NL West standings. The San Diego pitching staff has a 3.68 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .231 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 352 runs with a .245 batting average and a .314 on-base percentage this season. Fernando Tatis has led San Diego with 15 home runs and 38 RBIs, while Manny Machado has added 13 home runs and 50 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Randy Vasquez, who is 3-4 with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP over 84.1 innings pitched this year. 

Texas Rangers Betting Preview

The Texas Rangers are 43-44 this season after they won two out of three against Baltimore by scores of 6-10, 10-2, and 6-0. In their game three win, Texas scored three runs in the third inning, which was more than enough in the shutout victory. The Rangers recorded 11 hits in the game, and they were led by Semien, who went 1-4 with one home run and three RBIs in the win. Texas started Eovaldi, who allowed two hits and zero earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Dunning picked up the save. 

Prior to that series, the Rangers lost two out of three against the Mariners, but did win two out of three against the Orioles before that. Texas has won five of its last eight games, and they are currently battling with the Angels for third in the AL West standings. The Texas pitching staff has a 3.23 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and a .226 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 330 runs with a .229 batting average and a .296 on-base percentage this season. Adolis Garcia has led Texas with 10 home runs and 49 RBIs, while Corey Seager has added 11 home runs and 24 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Texas is Kumar Rocker, who is 3-4 with a 6.13 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP over 39.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Padres will beat the Rangers

• The Rangers have lost each of their last nine road games against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Padres have won 13 of their last 14 games against the Rangers.
• The Rangers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine road games against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last nine day games following a loss.
• The Rangers have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five games at Petco Park.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in each of their last six home games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Ten of the Padres’ last 11 day games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Rangers’ last nine games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Rangers’ last 11 games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Padres’ last 11 day games.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit a home run in three of the Padres’ last four games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• Xander Bogaerts has recorded at least one Double in four of his last five appearances in day games against AL West teams that held a losing record.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances in day games against AL teams that held a losing record.

Texas Rangers Player Prop Facts

• Corey Seager has hit a home run in each of the Rangers’ last three games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Wyatt Langford has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances against NL West opponents.
• Corey Seager has recorded at least one Double in each of his last four appearances against the Padres.

Padres vs Rangers Prediction 

Texas comes into this series after winning their last two games against Baltimore, as they continue to be one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. On the downside, the Rangers really struggle at the plate, where they are one of the worst scoring teams. Texas is 17-25 on the road this year, while San Diego is 25-14 at home. The Padres are starting Vasquez, who has allowed 4, 2, and 3 earned runs in his last three starts. The Rangers are going with Rocker, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight outings. This Texas pitching staff can typically keep them in most games, but I don’t trust their offense, and they have struggled to win on the road. Take the Padres at home.